Analyst: Bitcoin Price Approaches Short-Term Holder Cost Line, Expected Trend to Clarify After Increased Volatility

Odaily News Crypto Quant analyst Axel posted, stating that the Bitcoin price (currently $95,500) has approached the average acquisition cost of short-term holders ($99,460), with the current price difference narrowing to just 4%.

Axel explained that the current situation belongs to a decision-making zone, not a market rout. Historically, areas near the cost basis are often accompanied by increased volatility and become market reaction zones, which may either continue the trend or trigger a reversal—either returning to a premium state or facing a new round of selling pressure.

If the price stabilizes above $100,000 and short-term holders turn losses into profits, it would signal a reconversion to a bullish stance. If the discount rate returns to double-digit territory (below -10%), corresponding to a price drop below approximately $89,500, it would significantly increase pressure on holders with losing positions.