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Probability of Fed Maintaining Rates Unchanged in January Rises to 97.2% After Non-Farm Payrolls Report

2026-01-09 13:57

Odaily News According to CME FedWatch Tool: After the release of the non-farm payrolls data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in January is 2.8% (compared to 11.6% before the release), while the probability of maintaining rates unchanged has risen to 97.2% (compared to 88.4% before the release). By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 32.3% (compared to 35.8% before the release), the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 66.8% (compared to 60.6% before the release), and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 0.9% (compared to 3.7% before the release).