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Probability of Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in January before non-farm payroll data release is 88.4%

2026-01-09 13:29

Odaily News According to CME "FedWatch": Before the non-farm payroll data release, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 11.6%, and the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged is 88.4%. By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 35.8%, the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 60.6%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 3.7%.