The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January has fallen to 19.9%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged by March is 44.7%.
2025-12-22 11:05
According to CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January has fallen below 20%, currently standing at 19.9%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 80.1%. Last week, the probability of a Fed rate cut in January had risen to 31%.
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until March next year is 44.7%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 46.5%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 8.8%.
The next two FOMC meetings of the Federal Reserve will be held on January 28, 2026, and March 18, 2026.
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