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The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January next year is 75.6% ahead of the non-farm payrolls report.

2025-12-16 13:24

According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 24.4%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 75.6%. By March of next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 42.4%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 49%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 8.6%.