Opinion: The market is predicted to experience "extreme information asymmetry and a clear arbitrage window".

According to 10X Research, blockchain-based prediction markets are attracting more speculators seeking returns beyond those of holding spot cryptocurrencies. Prediction markets are becoming a new speculative arena, leading to "extreme information asymmetry and obvious arbitrage windows" between retail investors and professional data-driven traders.

The report points out that for quantitative traders, prediction markets can offer asymmetric returns that are more advantageous than the potential upside of spot tokens. For example, on the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, the "yes" share of whether the BNB token will reach $1,500 on December 31, 2025, was traded at a price of approximately $0.01, which means there could be a potential return of 100 times if the event occurs.

However, the high win rates of some prediction market accounts have raised concerns about insider trading. Polymarket user AlphaRaccoon reportedly made over $1 million in a single day by betting on Google search trends, winning 22 out of 23 bets. Furthermore, Polymarket user ilovecircle has earned over $2.2 million in the past two months, maintaining a 74% win rate across bets covering politics, sports, and cryptocurrencies, leading to speculation that they are using machine learning models for cross-sector arbitrage and automated trading.