The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December was 89.2% before the ADP data release.

According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 89.2%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 10.8%. The probability of the Fed cumulatively cutting rates by 25 basis points by January next year is 66.6%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 7.7%, and the probability of cumulative rate cuts of 50 basis points is 25.7%. (Jinshi)