According to Cointelegraph, crypto analyst PlanC posted on the X platform that anyone who believes Bitcoin will peak in the fourth quarter of this year does not understand statistics or probability. From a statistical and probabilistic perspective, this is equivalent to flipping a coin and getting tails three times in a row, and then betting all your money that the fourth time will be tails. However, relying on the first three halving cycles does not provide enough statistically significant data.

Today, with the rise of Bitcoin Funding and massive inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, the halving cycle is no longer relevant for Bitcoin, and there is no fundamental reason other than a psychological, self-fulfilling prophecy to explain Bitcoin’s peak in Q4 2025.