Polymarket bettors lose big on Pope prediction, accuracy of rare event predictions in question

Odaily News Bettors on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket collectively misjudged the election of the new pope, with users betting on the popular candidates Parolin (28% chance of winning) and Tagle (20% chance of winning) losing more than $28 million, while the actual winner Provost (1% chance of winning) was not favored. This rare event exposed the limitations of the prediction market in low-frequency special events, in stark contrast to its 90% prediction accuracy in political elections.
Anonymous top bettor Domer analyzed that the lack of public information on the papal election has led users to over-rely on traditional data. (CoinDesk)