QCP: Bitcoin is not favored as a safe haven, participants still prefer to defend until a clearer situation emerges

Odaily News QCP said in an article today that the United States has demonstrated its strength and strategic brinkmanship, implementing deterrence tactics through exaggerated tariff figures. The bond market has begun to send warning signals. The 10-year Treasury yield soared to 4.6%, and the 30-year Treasury yield broke through 5%, disrupting risk sentiment. If Trump hopes to promote a stock market rebound during his term, long-term yields must fall, not rise. The sell-off in the bond market has increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to intervene. It seems to be approaching a turning point.
Last week, the Fed indicated it was ready to act to stabilize financial conditions. Governor Waller further emphasized this shift, suggesting that the Fed's attention is turning to recession risks, implicitly downplaying the problem of persistent inflation, which they now describe as "transitory." The Fed has previously applied the "transitory" label to various inflation cycles, but these cycles were far from temporary. Nonetheless, the Fed's protection mechanism is inching closer, and the market now expects 3.5 rate cuts by 2025.
Meanwhile, gold continues to rise as geopolitical tensions rise. With U.S. Treasuries and the dollar losing some of their traditional safe-haven appeal, gold has now become the market's preferred store of value. Unlike gold, Bitcoin has not gained safe-haven demand. The "alternative store of value" narrative has failed to gain traction in the current macro environment. Market participants' stance remains defensive. They are still focused on hedging downside risks until a clearer picture emerges.