Odaily News According to CME's "Fed Watch": Before the release of ADP data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May was 83.5%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was 16.5%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June was 25.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut was 63.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut was 11.6%.