Citigroup report predicts three main scenarios and market impacts of US tariff policy day on April 2

Odaily News In its latest report, Citigroup predicts three main scenarios for the US tariff policy day on April 2 and analyzes the corresponding market impact:
Only reciprocal tariffs announced: Market reaction in this scenario is more limited.
Reciprocal Tariffs plus Value Added Tax (VAT): The US dollar index could immediately rise by 50-100 basis points and global stock markets could fall.
In addition to reciprocal tariffs and VAT, industry-specific tariffs are also included: the market reaction in this scenario may be more dramatic.
The report pointed out that after the S&P 500 had its worst start to the first quarter since 2020, analysts warned that the potential risk of subsequent declines was greater than that of increases. Analysts believe that future tariffs and retaliatory actions will be key, and the market reaction on April 2 will depend on the timing of tariffs, especially industry tariffs, and the speed at which other countries respond to reciprocal tariffs.