Next week's macro outlook: Non-farm payrolls, Powell, and Trump compete for the spotlight, and the Fed's bet on rate cuts increases

Odaily News The dollar held near two-week highs after U.S. inflation data on Friday met expectations, with the Trump-Zelensky spat also boosting the dollar's safe-haven appeal. U.S. Treasuries had their strongest start to a year since the coronavirus crisis in early 2020, with the 10-year Treasury yield, which was close to 4.8% in January, now close to 4.2%, and the two-year yield breaking below 4% intraday for the first time in four months. U.S. stocks nearly wiped out their gains for 2025, but rebounded sharply on Friday, narrowing their losses for the second consecutive week. Here are the key points that markets will focus on in the new week:
At 22:45 on Monday, the final value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for February;
At 23:00 on Monday, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for February and the U.S. Construction Spending Monthly Rate for January will be released;
At 21:50 on Tuesday, 2025 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Moussalem will deliver a speech;
At 3:20 on Wednesday, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams delivered a speech at the Bloomberg Investment Forum;
Wednesday 21:15, US February ADP employment figures;
At 22:45 on Wednesday, the final value of the US S&P Global Services PMI for February;
At 1:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions;
At 20:30 on Thursday, the number of layoffs by challenger companies in the United States in February;
Thursday 21:30 U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending March 1;
At 21:30 on Friday, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and hourly wage annual and monthly rates for February in the United States will be released;
At 23:45 on Friday, FOMC permanent voting member, New York Fed President Williams and Fed Governor Bowman participated in a panel discussion on the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum Report organized by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business;
U.S. nonfarm payrolls for February are due on Friday, which could be a key indicator of the direction of U.S. interest rates. Economists estimate that the U.S. economy added 133,000 jobs in February, down from 143,000 in January; the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4%, while average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, down from 0.5% in January. The January PCE report is the last inflation data that Fed officials will have before their next policy meeting on March 18-19. After cutting interest rates by 100 basis points in three consecutive meetings until the end of 2024, the Fed will almost certainly keep interest rates steady for the second consecutive meeting this year.