Analyst: Three major indicators show that Bitcoin has not yet reached the top of the cycle

Odaily News Analysts at crypto asset management company 21Shares said several "on-chain" indicators show that Bitcoin has not yet reached its cycle peak and has room to go higher. However, compared with previous cycles, the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 and increased institutional participation in the crypto market may also have changed the behavior of some key indicators.
Analysts pointed out that currently, Bitcoin's MVRV ratio is between 2.5 and 3, indicating that a local high may occur, but it is still far below 7, indicating that the main cycle top has not yet been reached. Only when the price of Bitcoin exceeds $200,000 can its MVRV ratio reach 7.
As Bitcoin trades near $100,000, its unrealized net profit and loss has been ranging between 0.5 and 0.75, indicating a potential sell-off opportunity. However, analysts say that only when the unrealized net profit and loss reaches 0.75 can it indicate a sense of euphoria or greed, indicating that the market has peaked.
When Bitcoin hit an all-time high in mid-December last year, the seller risk ratio of long-term Bitcoin holders (a measure of the extent of investor profit-taking compared with previous market cycles) reached about 0.4%. On-chain analysts tend to believe that the market will enter an overheated state when the ratio approaches or exceeds 0.8%. (Jinshi)