Odaily News While Trump has a clear advantage in the prediction market, those betting on Trump may want to consider the latest economic data, which shows that Harris may benefit from substantial tailwinds as the incumbent party candidate, a conclusion drawn by analysts at Moody's Analytics based on research from past presidential elections. "The analytical model suggests that this election is still a toss-up, as four states - Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania, which together account for 57 electoral votes - are considered to be toss-ups," said Justin Begley, an economist at Moody's Analytics. A recent simulation for a client showed that mortgage rates, which have fallen significantly since last year, and the continued decline in gasoline prices are improving Harris's odds. Rising household incomes may also help Harris's chances of winning. "Harris's projected popular vote advantage nationwide has increased by an average of 0.2 percentage points, mainly due to our upward revisions to our forecasts for actual household income in each state," Begley said. The results of running the model 1,000 times showed Harris's probability of winning was 55.5%. (Jin Shi)