Odaily News According to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 91.5%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 8.5%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by August is 66%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 31.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 2.4%.