Odaily Odaily News: Federal Reserve Chair Warsh stated that he cannot offer any forward guidance on the next steps. "We have abandoned forward guidance, and my personal submission of the dot plot is not helpful for policy implementation."

Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh: Inflation remains well above the 2% target, persistently high prices are a burden, and recent history should not become a prelude to inflation problems. (Jin Shi)

Odaily reported that foreign media analysis indicates nearly half of the Federal Reserve's policymakers no longer believe that simply maintaining borrowing costs at current levels will be sufficient to drive inflation back down to the 2% target, following a surge in oil prices after the Iran conflict. The Fed’s latest dot plot, which reveals individual policymakers' views on the interest rate path, shows a rapid shift in the focus of internal debate: previously centered on how long to hold rates steady before cutting them, the discussion has now turned to growing concerns about rate hikes—with some even convinced the Fed will need to raise rates.

Additionally, forecasts released on Wednesday show that Fed policymakers have become more pessimistic about inflation since March, reflecting the sharp rise in inflation since the outbreak of the conflict. The median projection indicates that the year-over-year change in the PCE price index is expected to reach 3.6% by year-end, compared to the 2.7% forecast in March; the core PCE price index is expected to rise by 3.3% year-over-year, versus the 2.7% forecast in March; the unemployment rate by year-end is projected at 4.3%, unchanged from the actual reading in May and below the 4.4% forecast in March. This implies growing confidence that the labor market is not weakening and does not require support through rate cuts. (Jin Shi)

Odaily reported that the Fed's dot plot shows that out of 19 officials, only 18 submitted dot plot projections for 2026 and 2027, and only 17 submitted projections for 2028. Before the release of the Fed's dot plot, the market had already anticipated that newly appointed Fed Chairman Warsh would not submit dot plot projections. It is currently unclear which Fed official followed Warsh's lead and also did not submit the 2028 dot plot projections. (Jin Shi)

Odaily Odaily News The Federal Reserve dot plot shows that 1 person believes there should be 3 rate hikes in 2026 (0 in March), 5 people believe there should be 2 rate hikes in 2026 (0 in March), 3 people believe there should be 1 rate hike in 2026 (0 in March), 8 people believe interest rates should remain unchanged in 2026 (7 in March), 1 person believes there should be 1 rate cut in 2026 (7 in March), 0 people believe there should be 2 rate cuts in 2026 (2 in March), 0 people believe there should be 3 rate cuts in 2026 (2 in March), and 0 people believe there should be 4 rate cuts in 2026 (1 in March). Overall, the number of people supporting rate hikes in 2026 has surged to 9, with one person supporting an aggressive 75 basis point hike, while the number of people supporting rate cuts has plummeted to 1. (Jinshi)

Odaily reported that the “Fed Whisperer” Nick Timiraos commented on the Fed's interest rate decision: The latest dot plot shows a clear hawkish tilt. Among the 18 officials, nine expect at least one rate hike this year, with six even anticipating multiple rate increases. In contrast, only one official expects a rate cut this year; additionally, one participant (speculated to be Fed Chair Warsh) did not submit a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).

Meanwhile, the Fed's policy statement underwent a comprehensive overhaul from start to finish, with the text length significantly shortened. Overall, the communication framework for this meeting has notably shifted, potentially leading to a recalibration of market expectations for the rate path. (Jin Shi)

According to the Federal Reserve's dot plot, among the 19 officials, only 18 submitted their dot plot projections. Of these 18 officials, one believes that the cumulative rate hike in the remaining time of 2026 should be 75 basis points, five officials believe it should be 50 basis points, three officials believe it should be 25 basis points, eight officials believe the rate should remain unchanged, and one official believes there should be a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points. (Jin Shi)

Odaily Planet Daily News The market is now fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year. (Jin Shi)

Odaily: In its FOMC statement, the Federal Reserve noted that 9 out of 18 FOMC participants anticipate an interest rate hike in 2026. (Jin Shi)

Odaily News: The Federal Reserve held the benchmark interest rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting, in line with market expectations. (Jin Shi)