The second half of 2025 will most likely be a historical turning point when the traditional financial system and the digital currency ecosystem will achieve deep coupling.

The cryptocurrency carnival in May means that when the traditional financial system is struggling with tariff frictions, debt crises, and monetary policy dilemmas, Bitcoin is becoming a new choice for capital to hedge against the "uncertainty of the old order." As regulatory relaxation moves from expectations to implementation, this reconstruction process may accelerate. Of course, the mid-term suppression of U.S. Treasury yields, repeated regulatory policies, etc. may all pose a test to this round of gains. But in any case, Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative has entered the mainstream topic framework.

In early April, Trump's reciprocal tariff policy triggered a plunge in global assets. Trump then admitted that tariffs "will be significantly reduced" and confirmed that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will continue to serve, easing concerns about turmoil in the Fed's leadership. After investors were appeased, a new wave of risk appetite was triggered, and Bitcoin took the lead in rising strongly.

A month after Trump took office, the market has entered a period of chaos, with far greater complexity than before. The cryptocurrency market has also been affected by this uncertainty, experiencing rare and frequent fluctuations. Although the inherent weaknesses of human nature have planted the seeds of risk in the market, the immutable and scarce nature of Bitcoin has never wavered, and has given it the tenacious vitality to penetrate the cyclical fog. As "A Song of Ice and Fire" said: "Chaos is not an abyss, but a ladder."

Looking ahead to 2025, institutions are generally optimistic and believe that Bitcoin may exceed $200,000 in 2025.

U.S. stocks continued their rally to new highs, the crypto market celebrated Trump's positive news, Bitcoin approached $100,000, and MicroStrategy emerged as a dark horse due to its Bitcoin holdings and the development of new capital operation experiments.

Bitcoin is approaching its all-time high, and a new major uptrend in cryptocurrencies may be here.

The Federal Reserve began a 50 basis point rate cut as scheduled, and the rate cut cycle officially began. Global liquidity will enter a new easing cycle. Affected by this, global stock markets rose collectively, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Index continued to hit record highs, and stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region performed well. The crypto market enjoyed the dividend of the rate cut, and the price of Bitcoin broke through US$66,000. A new round of upward trend may be brewing.

In this tide of monetary easing, the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum, will usher in a new growth cycle, providing investors with valuable entry opportunities.

This month, the price of Bitcoin has experienced a "roller coaster" trend, which is more driven by emotions. The long-term trend represented by the Bitcoin spot ETF remains unchanged.

The divergence between the US CPI and non-farm data in June has caused the market to be unable to reach a consensus on the number of interest rate cuts, and can only "wait and see". Nvidia's market value once ranked first in the world, becoming the pride of the AI era. However, the US stock market is severely divided, the price-earnings ratio is high, and the bubble has already appeared. The crypto market fell for no reason this month. The selling of old OGs and miners may be the direct cause of the decline, and it also provides new opportunities for subsequent investment.

The US FOMC meeting in May kept interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. US inflation is temporarily stable, and interest rate cuts still need to wait, but the reduction of bank capital ratio policy is a precursor to interest rate cuts. Nvidia's performance continues to exceed market expectations, leading US stocks to new highs. The AI narrative is still there, but the arrival of the interest rate cut cycle may change the market style. The crypto market is full of positive news. The SEC has passed the listing standards for Ethereum spot ETFs. It is only a matter of time before related products of asset management institutions are listed. The FIT 21 Act regulates the crypto industry and may become a beacon for the future development of the industry.

This month, U.S. inflation intensified, but GDP fell short of expectations, triggering market concerns about the "stagflation" of the U.S. economy; under such concerns, coupled with the impact of geopolitical conflicts, the capital market has experienced a correction this month. U.S. and Japanese stocks have experienced a significant correction, while Europe is in a better situation, indicating that global investors are not worried about the so-called global economic systemic risks; although the crypto market has experienced fluctuations, and the black swan event caused Bitcoin to plunge below $60,000, the crypto market ushered in a historic moment on April 29: the Hong Kong crypto asset ETF was approved, indicating that incremental funds are still continuing to enter and the market outlook is positive.

This month, the Federal Reserves FOMC meeting decided to maintain interest rates unchanged, and raised future GDP expectations and lowered inflation expectations; Japans interest rate hike attracted world attention, but the Feds interest rate cut cycle may not need to worry about liquidity issues; European investors are also betting on interest rate cuts; the crypto market It is temporarily stuck in a correction, but supply-side analysis shows that there may be sufficient momentum for subsequent increases.

The U.S. manufacturing industry has recovered for two consecutive months, causing U.S. inflation to heat up again, triggering market concerns; OpenAI released a demo of its video model Sora, triggering a new round of discussion on the AI revolution, and Nvidia's financial report exceeded expectations, with its market value once becoming the third largest in U.S. stocks (after Microsoft and Apple); the crypto market offered a "Spring Festival red envelope", with Bitcoin breaking through $61,000 at its highest, and the "blood supply function" of ETFs for the crypto market has begun to show results.