SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240418): ETFs continue to outflow, and the halving enters the final countdown

特邀专栏作者

2024-04-18 19:14 (UTC+8)

This article is about 731 words, reading the full article takes about 2 minutes

Yesterday (17 APR), due to strong auction demand, U.S. Treasury yields collectively retreated slightly from their highs. The 10-year yield returned to below 4.6% at 4.575%, and the 2-year yield, which is sensitive to interest rate policy, was at 4.924%. Risk sentiment was cooled.

AI Summary

Expand

Yesterday (17 APR), due to strong auction demand, US Treasury yields collectively fell slightly from their highs, with the 10-year yield returning to below 4.6% at 4.575%, and the two-year yield, which is sensitive to interest rate policy, at 4.924%, cooling risk sentiment. The US stock market is still not optimistic, with the three major stock indexes collectively closing down, with the SP 500 index falling for the fourth consecutive day. The risk sentiment of the stock market has changed dramatically in the past two weeks, which has also brought pressure to cryptocurrencies.

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

In terms of digital currencies, ETFs have seen net outflows for four consecutive days. In addition to the continued selling from Grayscale, ARKB, owned by Cathie Wood, the third largest Bitcoin spot ETF on the market, has also seen outflows again. Some analysts pointed out that capital outflows are also a sign of product maturity to some extent. Users may want to reduce risk exposure during BTC volatility cycles, or simply take profits.

Source: Farside Investors

In addition, Google Trends data shows that the number of searches for the term "Bitcoin halving" on the Internet has reached 45 in the past period of time, and is expected to reach 100 in the next period of time (which means that the term has reached its "peak popularity").

Source: Google Trends Data

From the price point of view, last night was another tough night for bulls. BTC broke the important technical support level of $62,000, and the market began to pray for the next level of $59,000. However, the number of contracts that were liquidated last night has been greatly reduced compared with before, and the high leverage concentrated on BTC has been greatly reduced, which is also a manifestation of the market becoming relatively healthy to some extent.

Source: SignalPlus

In terms of options, ETH's IV level has slightly increased overall. From the transaction, we can see a large amount of Long Put net inflow on 19 APR/31 MAY. In terms of BTC, short-term IV has slightly increased due to yesterday's volatility and the upcoming halving event. In terms of transactions, a large group of 1875 BTC*2 calendar call spreads (buy May 80,000 and sell September 90,000) has attracted market attention, expressing expectations for the market trend after the halving.

Source: Deribit (as of 18 APR 16:00 UTC+8)

Source: SignalPlus

Data Source: Deribit, BTC transaction distribution

Data Source: Deribit, ETH transaction distribution, a large amount of Long Put net inflows appeared on 19 APR and 31 MAY

Source: Deribit Block Trade

You can search for SignalPlus in the Plugin Store of ChatGPT 4.0 to get real-time encryption information. If you want to receive our updates immediately, please follow our Twitter account @SignalPlusCN, or join our WeChat group (add assistant WeChat: SignalPlus 123), Telegram group and Discord community to communicate and interact with more friends.

SignalPlus Official Website: https://www.signalplus.com

BTC

ETH

finance

Welcome to Join Odaily Official Community