SignalPlus Macro Analysis (20240418): BTC ETF fund inflows continue to slow down
Risk sentiment cooled again yesterday as traders remained in loss control mode. A day after Powell poured cold water on the prospect of rate cuts this year, Treasury prices rebounded, while the S&P 500 fell for four consecutive days, its longest losing streak since January. No one was spared in this decline, and fear is replacing FOMO, with gold, crude oil and crypto prices all at a disadvantage.
On the political front, the U.S. prepared to raise tariffs on Chinese steel imports and impose other new restrictions, while a TikTok bill made significant progress in Congress.
Prices may be driven purely by technicals and positioning at this point, as seen from various sentiment indicators, the recent decline has already caused significant technical damage, but there is also a chance for an oversold bounce. The number of Nasdaq and SPX stocks that hit a one-month low has reached a nearly one-year high, and the Citi proprietary sentiment barometer sentiment indicator turned to "fear" territory after the recent decline.
In terms of corporate earnings, it was a mediocre start, with mixed earnings from banks (JPM missed expectations, Goldman Sachs beat), while LVMH sales missed expectations due to sluggish luxury purchases in China. In tech, Dutch giant ASML saw orders fall 61% to €3.6 billion in the first quarter, well below expectations of €4.6 billion, while TSMC and Samsung saw a slowdown in new orders due to higher inventory levels as global semiconductor manufacturing capacity increased.
On the crypto front, there was no news of note, but the Ark ETF saw outflows for the second day in a row, with $42 million, while Grayscale also saw outflows of $133 million, while Blackrock's IBIT only saw inflows of $18 million, bringing the overall net outflow to over $160 million. Expect more sideways/downside price action in the short term…
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