SignalPlus宏观分析(20240408)：宏观利好不断，BTC重返7万美元
Last Fridays strong non-farm payrolls data once again showed the tenacity of the U.S. job market. The overall data was significantly better than expected (303,000 vs. the expected 214,000). The previous value was revised up by 22,000, resulting in the 3-month average reaching +27.6 million, the unemployment rate fell back to 3.8% from a brief rise in February, while the average hourly wage rose from 0.2% to 0.3% month-on-month. The education, health, leisure, hotel and commodity sectors all showed strong performance.
Employment data continues to show resilience, and the recent global PMI index has also been better than expected. In addition, rising commodity prices have brought about renewed pressure on inflation, which seems to have posed considerable challenges to Powells dovish turn. Fed officials have also put forward some Hawks’ objections:
Richmond Fed Barkin: Acknowledged that the employment report was quite strong and should allow time for uncertainty to dissipate before cutting interest rates.
Governor Bowman: There are many upside risks to inflation and the Feds progress in pursuing its inflation target has stalled.
Dallas Feds Logan: Its too early to cut interest rates now because of significant risks to the inflation process.
Minneapolis Fed Kashkari: “If inflation continues to stagnate, it would make me question the need for rate cuts (2 times)”, “If we have very attractive growth, people have jobs, businesses are doing well, and inflation is coming down, then why take action? ?”
As commodity prices surge, even the Wall Street Journal published an opinion piece titled What if the Fed is wrong? Will there be some disagreements and pressure on the Feds consensus for a long time?
Meanwhile, commodity prices soared, posting their biggest weekly gains in nearly a year. In addition, investors began to consider the risk of runaway inflation caused by the Feds return to the old easy money model. While yields rose, the long-term inflation premium also rose sharply.
The probability of a rate cut in June is still around 60%. The U.S. bond yield curve has been showing a steep bearish trend, with the 10-year yield gradually approaching 4.50%. However, unlike the third quarter of last year, this time it happened in the interest rate volatility The significantly lower background suggests that investors are less worried about interest rate-induced balance sheet mishaps (such as the UK mini-budget crisis in the past, losses on hold-to-maturity portfolios, etc.).
However, implied interest rate volatility is falling, suggesting investors are more optimistic this time around the risk of a balance sheet accident caused by higher rates
Equities were able to rise despite rising yields (+9 basis points last Friday) as investors became more optimistic about interest rate risks, once again proving that equity investors have impeccable bullish adaptability to any scenario (bad news = rate cuts, Good news = good news), the risk sentiment party is still going on, at least ahead of CPI data later this week.
On the cryptocurrency side, prices have rebounded somewhat, with BTC back near $70,000. Many leveraged long futures positions were liquidated last week and funding rates returned to long-term normal levels.
Meanwhile, a dovish Fed and rising commodity prices have gold prices near all-time highs and continuing its long-term correlation with BTC. Spot ETFs have resumed net inflows, with an increase of US$203 million in funds last Friday, and net inflows so far this year have reached US$12.6 billion.
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