SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240405): Fed officials are intensively hawkish, BTC rises and falls
Yesterday (4 APR), U.S. bond yields fell off a cliff during the U.S. trading session as the unexpected slowdown in service sector growth supported interest rate cut expectations, but laterMany important officials from the Federal Reserve spread intensive hawkish remarks to the market, mentioned many timesInflation is still too highandNeed to see clearer progress before starting to cut ratesAmong these two points of view, the Eagle King Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said in March that he predicted only two interest rate cuts this year., and if inflation stops, especially if the economy is strong, there may be no need to cut interest rates this year.. Such a series of statements caused U.S. bond yields to rebound.Recovered most of the lost ground, the current two-year/ten-year period are 4.660%/4.337% respectively.U.S. stocks reverse gains in late trading, the SP/Dow/Nasdaq finally closed down -1.23%/-1.35%/-1.4%.
Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar
Source: SignalPlus & TradingView
In terms of digital currency,BTC once exceeded $69,000 during the day and then fell back to around $67,000 to fluctuate., the level of implied volatility increased slightly by 1 to 2% Vol, and the overall level is still slightly lower than last weeks 5-8% Vol. On the other hand, Vol Skew has not changed significantly yet, and is still within the historical three-month data. Around the low 25th percentile.
In terms of trading, ETHs Put is still uninterested, and call options with a front-end of 0.1 to 0.15 Delta (12 APR 3700-C/19 APR 3900-C/26 APR 4000-C) have been heavily sold; in terms of BTC, 12 APR 24 70000-C was under strong selling pressure. On 26 APR 24, a Long Call Spread Flow was formed with 73000 as the dividing point. In June, a group of 20 0x 4 Long ButterFly was harvested from the bulk. It seems that the traders expressedLimited near-term bullish views, and outlook for forward volatility。
Source: Deribit (as of 3A PR 16:00 UTC+ 8)
Source: SignalPlus, ATM Vol
Source: SignalPlus, Vol Skew
Data Source: Deribit, ETH trading distribution, calls near 0.1 ~ 0.15 Delta were sold off
Data Source: Deribit, BTC transaction distribution
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
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