SignalPlus宏观分析(20240215)：CPI数据“符合”预期

At the end of the year, the futures premium/premium of BTC and ETH rushed back to 11% +.

Selling call options on 80,000 BTC at the end of June, the current annualized income (coin-based) is 13.6%, but looking at this rising trend, I dare not sell...

Yesterdays market rally was initially led by fixed income markets, with Tuesdays retracement of CPIs bearish trend extending into a sharp rebound, driven by geopolitical risk events (Russias new space nuclear weapons capabilities) and mild economic data. The overall revised value of US PPI was revised down to -0.2%, and the core PPI was revised down to -0.1%, bringing the overall annualized rate to 1% and 1.8% respectively. After yesterdays CPI data that disappointed the market, this data result is disappointing He breathed a sigh of relief. In addition, UK CPI was also significantly lower than expected (-0.6% month-on-month vs. -0.3% expected). Bank of England Bailey commented that the slowdown in inflation will further affect salary negotiations. The CPI results also made the markets demand for fixed income abnormal. Strong (30-year German Bund issue bid-to-cover ratio of 2.27x; Bristol Myers $13 billion supply attracted $85 billion), adding impetus to the bond rally.

In addition, the Federal Reserve Goolsbee unexpectedly made a rather direct and dovish comment, saying that the market should not be excited by one months CPI data and that it is only one months data, not several months. He also said that the Feds The inflation target is based on PCE rather than CPI, and inflation has been close to the target for six to seven consecutive months. This clearly dovish attitude was in sharp contrast to Powells closed-door meeting with the legislature on Tuesday, in which Powell said: Wage growth for low-income workers has been higher than inflation, and that is increasingly the case for most workers now, said Powell. In response to the higher-than-expected CPI, Powell reiterated that the inflation data were in line with their previous expectations. ”, the Fed will rely on the upcoming PCE report to provide “more intelligence”, while he refused to give any clues on when the Fed will cut interest rates.

The stock market has also recovered 60-70% of the previous days losses, mainly stimulated by corporate stock buyback plans. Companies that have recently announced buybacks include Las Vegas Sands, Ford, GM, RTX, Airbnb, and of course Uber and Meta; Uber announced a $7 billion share repurchase plan after achieving full-year profit for the first time, while Meta earlier announced an increase of $50 billion in share repurchases and will pay dividends for the first time.

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