SignalPlus宏观分析(20240214)：SPX创历史新高，通胀数据令市场担忧

Dear friends, happy Year of the Dragon! May this new year bring prosperity and happiness to you and your loved ones.

While markets were closed for the holidays in Asia, the SPX managed to break through an all-time high of 5,000 points, BTC hit $50,000, and Nvidia became the fourth largest company on the planet by market capitalization (surpassing Amazon), risk sentiment seemed to have entered an overheated state .

However, the market clearly had other ideas. Yesterdays CPI gave a number that no one wanted. The core CPI increased by 0.39% month-on-month, and the owners equivalent rent (OER) increased by 0.56%, resulting in a three-month annualized core CPI increase of 4 % (previously 3.3%), while super core inflation rose 0.8% month-on-month (the largest increase in two years), posing a serious challenge to the Feds inflation slowdown narrative. To make matters worse, the share of core spending that is experiencing slowing inflation fell from 44% to 29%, while the share of categories with stubbornly high inflation (4%+) jumped from 38% to 58%. All in all, this is A CPI data that was very unfavorable to risk sentiment caused the markets attention to the retail sales and PPI data to be released later this week.

The market reacted quickly to unfavorable economic data. Short-term U.S. bond yields rose by 17 basis points, the 5/30s curve flattened by 9.5 basis points, and the stock market fell by 1.5% to 2%. Gold prices fell accordingly. With the financial Conditions tightened rapidly and credit spreads widened. SOFR H 4-H 5 (March) futures prices reflect that the market has ruled out expectations for an interest rate cut. U.S. 1 y 1 y interest rates have also jumped 25 basis points, and the 10-year real interest rate has risen to 2%. This level last appeared in The morning of the December FOMC meeting (before the dovish turn). In short, after the announcement of CPI, market expectations for interest rate cuts before the end of this year have been adjusted from 6.5 times to only 3.5 times.

The SPX fell 1.4% and the Nasdaq fell 1.8%, with growth stocks underperforming as expected amid rising yields. Precious metals, regional banks, gold miners and other interest rate-sensitive sectors suffered a sell-off. The upcoming retail sales and PPI data are suddenly quite important in driving short-term sentiment, as a return to higher rates for longer amid weaker economic data essentially means an increased likelihood of recession, This could create real headwinds for risk assets in the short term. In addition, as realized volatility begins to increase, Wall Street expects systemic volatility control funds to reduce their exposure to equities, which will further increase the risk of market downside as risk sentiment falters.

Although BTC spot exceeded $50,000, the cryptocurrency market was relatively quiet, and futures liquidation was still moderate despite the rapid price rebound. Analysts report that nine BTC spot ETFs outside of GBTC have attracted a total of $1.46 billion since launch, offsetting outflows from GBTC, however, as price action is increasingly driven by TradFi activity (ETFs replace ((BTC futures open interest has been declining)), it is recommended to pay close attention to the impact of further tightening of financial conditions on cryptocurrency prices, especially the trend of gold prices and real interest rates in the short term.

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