SignalPlus宏观分析(20240202)：美国经济数据良好，推动股票全面上涨
BTC’s DVOL Volatility Index is at 45 (above this 67% of the time over the past year), and BTC’s year-end contango was 9.5%. The volatility is not high, the options are not too expensive, and there is an expectation of halving. You can consider the bull market spread. The bull market spread of 45,000-50,000 at the end of April: the cost of 1,700 U is for the profit of 5,000 U, without having to carry an order.
Yesterday was a day with better risk sentiment across asset classes, with worries about regional banks and commercial real estate driving safe-haven buying in bonds, while good U.S. economic data, early-month positioning flows, and the FOMC meeting A combination of post-dip buying, along with strong earnings results from Meta and Amazon, fueled the rally.
First, in the interest rate market, in order to cope with the tail risk of the further spread of the regional banking crisis, there has been good buying in fixed income. Long-term interest rates have fallen by 10 basis points from the highest point after the FOMC meeting. The 30-year yield is currently at this years low. lowest level (4.06%), while the 10-year yield is quickly approaching trendline support at 3.80%.
A Japanese bank reported losses on U.S. real estate, causing some regional bank stocks to fall 7% in early trading. At the same time, Deutsche Bank also increased its loss provisions for U.S. commercial real estate nearly five times to about $133 million. We provide more analysis on the commercial real estate market in SignalPlus 2024 Macro Outlook. Friends who are interested should be sure to check it out.
On the other hand, the U.S. economy continues to remain stable, with the ISM Manufacturing Index performing strongly due to sharp jumps in new orders (52.5 vs 47) and prices paid (52.9 vs 45.2), with the former performing the best since May 2022; in addition, The Atlanta Feds GDPNow model raised its first-quarter GDP forecast from 3.0% to 4.2% (!), while jobless claims also fell, providing the perfect combination of economic data to drive gains across the board for bonds and stocks.
The non-farm payrolls data will be released today, and investment banks predict that the data results may exceed expectations. Citigroups report pointed out that the number of weekly jobless claims in January was generally low, suggesting that the employment data may be strong, and wage growth may also be higher than 2 % inflation target, however, unless both figures significantly exceed market expectations, they are unlikely to have a significant impact on market prices.
You can search for SignalPlus in the Plugin Store of ChatGPT 4.0 to get real-time encryption information. If you want to receive our updates immediately, please follow our Twitter account @SignalPlus_Web3, or join our WeChat group (add assistant WeChat: SignalPlus 123), Telegram group and Discord community to communicate and interact with more friends.
SignalPlus Official Website：https://www.signalplus.com
