SignalPlus宏观分析(20240129)：美国经济数据表现强劲

The market ended last week with stronger U.S. economic data. In December, the overall core PCE increased by 0.17% month-on-month. However, core service prices other than housing also remained strong, with a month-on-month increase of 0.28%; personal income and consumer spending were in good condition, while becoming Home sales also experienced one of the largest single-month increases (+8.3%) in the past 10 years (outside of the epidemic period).

Fixed income underperformed amid rising concerns about higher prices in the services sector, coupled with corporate bond issuance reaching a record $721 billion so far in January as investment demand has largely been met. In addition, shipping logistics continues to be affected, and with the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East (the US military base in Jordan was attacked by drones), oil prices have the opportunity to exceed US$80 per barrel, which may pose a threat to slowing inflation.

This week will be the busiest macro-wise so far this year. On Tuesday, consumer confidence survey results and the number of JOLTS job vacancies will be released. On Wednesday, there will be a summary of the Bank of Japans opinions, Chinas PMI, Germanys CPI and unemployment rate, the US ADP, FOMC meeting, and quarterly refinancing announcement, followed by Thursdays financial results. The new manufacturing PMI, Bank of England resolution and US ISM manufacturing index will end this busy week on Friday with US non-farm employment data and the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey.

The US earnings season is also busy, with 32% of SP 500 companies reporting earnings this week, including Alphabet, Microsoft, AMD, Apple, Amazon and Meta.

This week will bring a wealth of new information in three main areas: corporate earnings, monetary policy and economic data. We believe that the employment data may be the most critical of these, and the FOMC decision will cover the broadest scope. At the same time, in a market that has trended upward since the beginning of the year but still shows risk aversion, corporate earnings performance may have a positive impact on the market. The relative trend has the greatest impact. If results in these areas are positive, the market could rise further and remove reasons for investors to be cautious.

The market currently predicts that the possibility of an FOMC interest rate cut in March is close to 50/50. However, this weeks FOMC meeting itself may not bring much surprise, because no economic forecast will be announced, and the market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will continue to use its current remarks. tone to manage market expectations. Citis report pointed out that the current implied volatility of the option straddles on January 31 was +/- 1%, which is lower than the actual volatility of +/- 1.3% on FOMC meeting days since 2022.

In terms of investor sentiment, options traders remain generally bullish, with 0 DTE calls hitting a new record, with over 58% of 0 DTE volume being calls, pushing the call/put ratio back above 1.

There hasn’t been much going on on the cryptocurrency front, with prices rising over the weekend on short covering in some markets, while news emerged that Google will start allowing certain BTC and cryptocurrency ads to show on its platform, although this policy change is early It was announced in December last year.

Fund flows to ETFs are essentially the same as before, with 9 ETFs still collectively responding to outflows from GBTC. However, we are starting to see an increase in Blackrocks IBIT trading volume, reaching $481 million, gradually approaching Greyscales $649 million, and Well above its average first-week trading volume. Is there any chance that IBTC’s trading volume will exceed GBTC’s before mid-February? Does this signal the arrival of the next bull market, at the expense of TradFi continuing to take over cryptocurrencies? Lets continue to pay close attention!

You can search for SignalPlus in the Plugin Store of ChatGPT 4.0 to get real-time encryption information. If you want to receive our updates immediately, please follow our Twitter account @SignalPlus_Web3, or join our WeChat group (add assistant WeChat: SignalPlus 123), Telegram group and Discord community to communicate and interact with more friends.

SignalPlus Official Website：https://www.signalplus.com