SignalPlus宏观分析(20240126)：GBTC资金持续流出

The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time, but President Lagarde expressed a dovish turn through statements and comments; the comment in the previous statement that price pressures remain high due to continued growth in labor unit costs this time was omitted from the ECB statement, while Lagarde told a press conference that a slowdown in inflation is underway and that price pressures will ease further during the year, while she reiterated the committees view that it is still too early to discuss a rate cut. Too early, but she also qualified that comment, saying it was possible that a rate cut would happen in the summer or before the summer if more progress was made in slowing inflation.

Similar to the US, policymakers have clearly pivoted and declared victory in the fight against inflation early, but there are signs that input prices may have reached a short-term bottom and we may soon need to contend with a rebound in prices, particularly if shipping lanes close and oil prices The rise continues to worsen.

In the United States, fourth-quarter economic data showed that the U.S. economy is still very strong, with GDP growth of 3.3%, significantly exceeding the expected 2.0%, and personal consumption expenditures also better than expected. Strong government spending, inventory increases and positive net exports constitute the A major factor in growth, final demand also remains at target levels.

The Fed and bond markets are winning again in the soft landing narrative, with stronger GDP, solid consumer spending, continued moderation in price pressures, and a cooling job market (Jobs +27K) pushing yields on a bullish trend In addition, the European Central Banks dovish stance, Chinas bailout plan and slightly lower than expected Tokyo CPI also helped maintain asset prices. Although Teslas stock price fell 11% and Intels performance forecast was bleak, the SP 500 index still hovered at Near historical highs.

As the dust settled on the approval of the BTC spot ETF, market views became more negative, and subsequent price movements were disappointing, making it difficult for BTC to remain above $40,000.

Nine days after the ETFs launch, net outflows accelerated to about $153 million, in sharp contrast to the $1.2 billion in inflows in the first week. JPM compared the BTC spot ETF and GLD (gold ETF). The latter only attracted $3.5 billion in capital inflows one year after its launch, which is far lower than the $10-50 billion predicted by various circles. So far, the BTC spot ETF has only been launched for one week. The subsequent capital inflow performance also lagged behind GLD, mainly affected by the continued redemption of GBTC.

Considering that long-term GBTC holders still have huge unrealized gains, and that Grayscale has higher fees compared to new ETFs, GBTC outflows are likely to continue in the short term, and the current market defensive sentiment will continue for a longer period of time.

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