SignalPlus宏观分析(20240125)：BTC现货ETF交易量创记录
The 2 largest BTC options today:
Sell 46,000 put options at the end of January => This boss is great. When the ETF was at a high, he bought 300 BTC put options and took a profit of US$1.78 million.
Sell the put of 37,000 and the call of 45,000 at the end of February; buy the call and put of 41,000 at the end of April (halving) => I will buy below 37,000 at the end of February, and it will not rise back to above 45,000 in the short term. Halving in April, betting on a big drop or a big rise. Pay 5.65 million US dollars and open a position of 1,000 BTC
The Peoples Bank of China lowered the deposit reserve ratio, the US PMI exceeded expectations, the results of the 5-year US bond auction were not satisfactory, risk sentiment improved, and US interest rates slowly rose.
At the press conference of the Central Economic Work Conference, Pan Gongsheng, governor of the Peoples Bank of China, announced that he would lower the deposit reserve ratio by 50 basis points on February 5 and launch broader market stabilization measures. The governor chose to convey it personally during market trading hours. This information surprised the market; in addition, the Peoples Bank of China also announced that it will establish a Credit Market Department to be responsible for five key tasks including technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance. Regardless of the Peoples Bank of China Chinese policymakers appear to be seriously strengthening their resolve to support the market, whether they can exert influence and promote targeted lending growth in specific sectors.
In the North American market, the release of the U.S. PMI in January coincided with the Bank of Canadas interest rate decision, and manufacturing data strengthened. Although the Bank of Canada kept interest rates unchanged, it still expressed concerns about continued inflation, and bonds continued to be under pressure; U.S. manufacturing PMI rose from 47.9 to 50.3, mainly due to the improvement of new orders (from 47.1 to 52.3), while the service PMI also unexpectedly rose by 1.5 points; the annual growth rate of South Koreas semiconductor exports is usually a leading indicator of global PMI, and the recent growth rate of South Koreas semiconductor exports The rebound heralds a continued recovery in manufacturing.
Although the Bank of Canada decided to keep interest rates unchanged and removed the clear tendency to raise interest rates in the statement, they added a key paragraph stating that the Committee remains concerned about the outlook for inflation, and is particularly concerned about the persistence of inflation, giving a later five-year forecast. U.S. Treasury bond auctions have brought further pressure.
Facts have proved that the US$61 billion 5-year U.S. Treasury auction was difficult for the market to digest, with a tail of +2 basis points, and the bid multiple of 2.31 was significantly lower than the average of 2.52. All indicators performed weak across the board, with many indicators even close to 6 At a monthly low, the auction results pushed yields up a further 5 basis points; in addition, the decline in bonds since the beginning of the year has effectively eliminated about 25 basis points of interest rate cut expectations, and pricing for an interest rate cut in 2024 has fallen from 150 basis points at the beginning of the month to “only” 125 basis points remaining.
In addition, the Federal Reserve announced that the emergency lending program BTFP (Bank Term Funding Program) launched last year will officially expire on March 11. As some banks took advantage of the drop in OIS interest rates, they borrowed funds from the system and re-deposited them to increase interest rates. Arbitrage, use of the scheme has recently jumped to its highest point, and as the old saying goes, never let a good crisis go to waste, investment banks are certainly masters at taking this advice to heart.
Stocks closed slightly higher, giving up some early gains from Chinas stimulus package. Energy and large technology stocks led gains again despite Teslas profit, revenue and gross margin being lower than expected. The company warned that sales growth in 2024 may decline significantly; in the next two years This week will usher in the peak of the earnings season, coinciding with the release of a series of important macro indicators at the end of the month.
On the cryptocurrency side, spot ETFs have broken many trading volume records eight days after their launch, and winners have emerged, with products from Blackrock and Fidelity accounting for more than 60% of the market share excluding GBTC.
However, market sentiment is still sluggish. The cumulative outflow of GBTC has almost unilaterally offset the total inflow of the other 9 ETFs. In addition, GBTC’s trading volume (not pure trading volume) has been shrinking in the past few days, and the BTC futures have not flattened. Positions have also been significantly reduced, as some trading activity may have been cannibalized by spot ETFs. All in all, the market continues to overcome short-term capital outflows and lacks positive incentives, and prices may continue to correct in the short term.
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