SignalPlus宏观研报(20240124)：悲观！市场认为BTC将在年底跌至2万美元以下

Market sentiment remains muddled, with news and developments varying across regions; China launches new rescue plan expected to provide stock market buying support via offshore capital (returning to quantitative easing), while an Asia-based hedge The fund made headlines when it was forced to shut down its products due to wrong bets on the Chinese and Japanese markets. The chief investment officer of the institution, a veteran with decades of market experience, admitted that he had lost confidence, which is another reminder. Macro is very difficult to control, no matter how experienced you are, it is difficult to match it.

Speaking of Japan, 10-year JGB yields have jumped 18 basis points from this months lows, with another surge in yields over the past two days as Bank of Japan Governor Ueda made it clear that an April rate hike is on the table. Rising; Governor Ueda said at a press conference on Tuesday that the Bank of Japan would consider ending its negative interest rate policy if the inflation target is in sight and unions have been demanding larger wage increases in labor negotiations. He also believed that Japan The central bank could avoid disruption in ending its negative interest rate policy, although traders are also watching for news of a possible rebuttal, which has happened frequently since Ueda took over.

Returning to Europe and the United States, the issuance volume of the European bond market hit a new high. New bond issuance in January reached about 320 billion US dollars, and most of the market reactions were very good. More than 80% of the transactions saw interest rate spreads narrowing (i.e., price rise) situation.

In the United States, the market demand for the record-breaking 2-year U.S. Treasury bond auction (single US$60 billion) was also good. The issue price of 4.365% was exactly in line with the screen price. The bid exceeded US$154.2 billion, and the bid multiple was 2.57. Traders The proportion fell to 14.8%, the lowest since July last year. Considering the recent re-emergence of inflation risks due to the rebound in oil prices, the overall auction results were quite good.

The market is generally calm, still waiting for the results of the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Departments quarterly refinancing, non-farm payrolls data and the arrival of the end of the month. The corporate earnings season will also be in full swing, so traders are more conservative this week. The negative correlation between stocks and bonds over the past six months (a necessity for a diversified portfolio) has gradually disappeared, and if the correlation returns to zero (or worse, turns positive), it may exacerbate asset price volatility in February. This is reminiscent of the market decline in the second quarter of 2023, and the easy risk trading seems to be coming to an end in the short term.

Speaking of the end of the honeymoon period, outflows from GBTC continue to weigh on the market, cryptocurrency prices continue to weaken, and the lack of incentives and capital inflows in the short term (which takes longer) has led to traders losing confidence in the short-term outlook over the past few years. Day futures long liquidations have steadily increased.

In addition, surveys by Bloomberg and some brokerages show that the mainstream group’s demand or investment sentiment for cryptocurrencies has not changed much in the short term. Although the launch of ETFs has increased the legitimacy of cryptocurrencies, it has not increased participation in virtual assets; Deutsche A survey by Bank shows that 1/3 of the respondents believe that BTC will fall below 20,000 by the end of the year (some cheap put options should be bought), which is very different from the expectations of industry participants, and it seems that the road ahead Still long!

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