SignalPlus宏观研报(20240119)：GBTC持续流出，加密市场将承受短期抛压
After a chaotic repricing of short-dated yields in the previous day, long-dated yields also emerged on the back of strong housing data, a one-year low in jobless claims, and issues digesting bond supply in European and U.S. markets Repricing, market reaction to the latest debt issuances from Spain and France was muted, while US investment grade corporates and SSA (International Agencies, Sub-Sovereigns and Government Agencies) have seen about $35 billion in issuance so far this week, weighing on the long-term Futures yields rose about 6 basis points.
The number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States dropped sharply to 187,000 (the previous value was 202,000), which is the lowest point in more than a year. It will also become the reference value for the calculation of non-farm employment data. The data results initially caught the market off guard, and Subsequent releases of housing starts and building permits also exceeded expectations, indicating that demand for housing remains strong as the new year begins, in part due to falling mortgage rates.
The stock market rebounded led by technology stocks. TSMC expects to return to healthy growth in 2024, driving the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index higher. The company expects revenue to grow by 20% in fiscal 2024 and expects to expand in Japan, Arizona and Germany. has invested US$28 billion to US$32 billion in its global expansion plans.
In addition, the Chinese stock index also rebounded late yesterday afternoon, and some large-scale ETFs saw large-scale trading volumes, triggering market speculation that state funds may be entering the market to support the market to curb the recent decline. The trading volume of many Chinese ETFs has increased since 2015. The biggest jump in 2019 (!!) coincided with a reversal of about 3% in the CSI 300 (from -1.8% to +1.4%).
On the cryptocurrency side, as GBTC funds continue to outflow and excitement about the ETF approval has waned, the price of the currency has declined since the launch of the ETF, and the reversal of the GBTC discount (back to -0.956%) also indicates that there is some short-term Selling pressure.
In terms of positive news, the Coinbase vs. SEC case seemed to favor the former during Wednesdays oral argument. Some comments pointed out that the judge in the case was very well prepared and knowledgeable about the relevant issues. He drafted more than 14 pages for the hearing, and Familiar with a variety of cryptocurrency terminology and technology; Coinbase makes a strong argument that cryptocurrency assets traded on its platform do not meet elements of the Howey test, and there appears to be general consensus that tokens are not securities per se.
However, Judge Failla seems unwilling to dismiss the case purely based on the major issues doctrine (major issues should be raised by Congress rather than agencies such as the SEC). The case is still likely to continue to develop and it will take several months to have a result. .
In short, the case appears to have a chance of being another victory against the SEC, although it may drag on longer than many hope.
(The views in this article are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice)
You can search for SignalPlus in the Plugin Store of ChatGPT 4.0 to get real-time encryption information. If you want to receive our updates immediately, please follow our Twitter account @SignalPlus_Web3, or join our WeChat group (add assistant WeChat: xdengalin), Telegram group and Discord community to communicate and interact with more friends.
SignalPlus Official Website：https://www.signalplus.com
