SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20240116): The market is calm

The U.S. market was closed yesterday and the overall market was relatively calm. In Asia, despite weak Chinese bank lending leading to a further slowdown in social financing, and both CPI and PPI currently in deflationary territory, the Peoples Bank of China unexpectedly kept the MLF interest rate unchanged this month, disappointing the market, and the performance of Chinese stocks Still continues to lag behind global markets.

Speaking of deflation, according to Goldman Sachs estimates, global core inflation has slowed sharply since 2022-2023, falling to an average of 2%. The market has not ignored this, and has continued to increase pricing for interest rate cuts in 2024, putting central banks at risk necessitating policy easing, however, at the same time as global shipping costs began to soar due to the conflict in the Red Sea and the correlation between crude oil and inflation remained near record highs, in addition to still strong corporate profits and retail sales That may provide support for inflation, and markets are currently not fully prepared for a recovery in inflation, which is something we will keep in mind this year.

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