SignalPlus宏观研报(20240115)：BTC现货ETF数据表现亮眼，2024美国恐大幅降息
The softening of U.S. PPI announced last Friday endorsed the Federal Reserves dovish turn and increased the possibility of further interest rate cuts in the future. The downward revision to the previous value coupled with the decline in core PPI (which fell to 1.8% year-on-year growth) led to 10-year earnings The rate fell 10 basis points intraday, the 2/10s curve steepened back to a spread of only -20 basis points, and the 2/30s curve reversed for the first time since October last year, and short-term yields Also benefiting from geopolitical tensions, the United States/UK jointly conducted air strikes against the Houthin rebels, causing crude oil prices to rise by 4%. The rate cut reflected in the federal funds rate in 2024 reached 165 basis points, a new record this year.
The U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed today for Martin Luther King Day. The market focus is likely to focus on the situation in emerging markets after the results of Taiwans presidential election are released, as well as a series of Chinese economic data this week, including credit, industrial production and retail sales data. At the same time, the market will also pay attention to the MLF pricing of the Peoples Bank of China, especially after Chinas overall financing and loan data softened.
In the stock market, the focus will be on the earnings season, with SPX companies that will release fourth-quarter results within the two weeks of the 22nd and 29th accounting for more than 50% of the total market capitalization; from a technical perspective, after recent trends, There are some early signs of weakness in the broader market, but we are approaching the SPXs all-time high of 4818, and a break above that level could give the rally a chance to extend further.
In terms of cryptocurrencies, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas pointed out that the first two trading days after the ETF was approved attracted more than $1.4 billion in new funds into the new ETF, but this was partially offset by GBTC’s $579 million outflow. Compared to leading products such as SPY and QQQ, the trading volume and number of trades performed by cryptocurrency ETFs are quite impressive, especially considering that the asset class has been severely criticized by the mainstream public over the past 18 months.
Although the market seems to believe that the drop in BTC price to $42,000 is due to the outflow of funds from GBTC, this is not consistent with the data. The price changes are more likely to be bullish profit-taking. The previous launch of BTC futures and futures ETFs also Causing BTC price to weaken, will we experience the same fate this time?
On the other hand, Blackrock CEO Larry Fink, who has been disparaging cryptocurrencies for most of the past 3-5 years, has been singing the praises of Bitcoin in his latest TV interviews and statements, which is a bit creepy. His 180-degree U-turn comments include :
Talking about the latest spot ETFs on CNBC’s Squawk Box: ETFs are a way to give investors exposure to this young and risky asset class, but blockchain technology can provide far more value than bitcoin, these ETFs are just broader A prelude to asset tokenization.
He said that ETFs are the first step in the technological revolution of financial markets and the second step will be the tokenization of all financial assets.
I think when the world gets scared, when people get scared about geopolitical risk, about their own risk, the price of this asset class will go up, he said. Its no different than what gold has represented for thousands of years, its An asset class that offers protection.”
It is a ledger, but it is a ledger that transcends governments and crosses borders.
The launch of the Bitcoin ETF is an example of how we are legitimizing this asset class.
Its really impressive how quickly peoples views can change when it comes to their own interests, and hopefully the inflow of money can keep up.
You can search for SignalPlus in the Plugin Store of ChatGPT 4.0 to get real-time encryption information. If you want to receive our updates immediately, please follow our Twitter account @SignalPlus_Web3, or join our WeChat group (add assistant WeChat: xdengalin), Telegram group and Discord community to communicate and interact with more friends.
SignalPlus Official Website：https://www.signalplus.com
