SignalPlus宏观研报(20240111)：BTC现货ETF正式通过
BTC spot ETF officially approved
ETH’s volatility index is still at a high of 68.57, reaching a maximum of 73 last night; #BTC’s has fallen to 60.9.
Japanese wage growth fell short of expectations (-3% year-on-year vs. -2% expected), and the global dovish turn continues. The market now expects the Bank of Japan to end its negative interest rate policy closer to September than April; the yen fell back to 146 , the Nikkei Index climbed to a 35-year high and is about to surpass the much-maligned"bubble era"At the high point, the Japanese stock market has once again performed well this year, with an increase of nearly 5%. The exchange rate-adjusted increase is also about 1.5%, which far outperforms other developed markets (US stocks are flat, Europe -1.7%, China -5.5%).
Most asset classes are trading very well, but asset price movements are contained due to a lack of market-moving data and traders making some final position adjustments ahead of todays CPI release; Feds Williams attempts to deliver on balance sheet reduction Some hawkish information stated that “we do not appear to be close” to the point at which the FOMC “stops reducing the size of its balance sheet” and said, “To fully achieve our goals, I expect that we will need to maintain tightening policy for some time, and only if we have It is appropriate to reduce the degree of policy tightening when we are confident that inflation will continue to move toward the 2% target. However, the market has been completely immune to these attempts to tighten financial conditions, and market pricing reflects that there is still a 70% possibility of an interest rate cut in March.
In addition, similar to PIMCOs comments we mentioned earlier, more and more large financial institutions have made it clear that the interest rate cuts in 2024 are expected to be larger than expected. JPM believes that a 150 basis point interest rate cut is only a base scenario. If the economic situation is bad, the interest rate cut will The magnitude will be much bigger than that; after the Feds pivot, will we see a Wall Street pivot and follow-through? Todays CPI release will be a key part of this narrative, depending on how the data turns out (markets expect core CPI to rise 0.3% month-on-month, with services expected to be relatively strong, offset by weak commodity prices).
In terms of cryptocurrency, the U.S. SEC finally approved the first batch (11) of qualified spot ETFs, including products from Blackrock, ARk 21, Fidelity, Invesco and VanEck. The vote was apparently evenly matched, passing 3 to 2. SEC Chairman Gensler cast the decisive vote in favor, while Republican members voted against.
Of course, the SEC chairman would not easily let this decision disappear gently into the night. In his statement, he reiterated that he “has not approved or recognized Bitcoin” and said that Bitcoin is still “primarily a speculative, unstable asset and used for illegal activities, and said todays approval does not in any way represent the Commissions willingness to approve listing standards for crypto-asset securities, in case the market is unclear about his true feelings on the subject.
The price trend is relatively calm. The spot price of BTC is still below $47,000. There is not a lot of news-driven fluctuations or FOMO emotions. Perhaps the hacked tweets the previous day have released a lot of gamma risks in advance; as the focus turns to ETH Spot ETF, ETH performed relatively well yesterday after a long period of underperformance relative to BTC.
Here, we warmly welcome TradFi friends to join the world of cryptocurrency, and hope that you will stay for a long time!
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