SignalPlus宏观研报(20240108)：BTC现货ETF通过预期大增

BTC’s volatility index DVOL hit a new high during the year, reaching 72. The low at the end of the year was 31 in mid-August, which is 232% of the current low. Because of the ETF thing this week, it is estimated that DVOL will remain high.

The futures premium of BTC fell over the weekend. The premium of futures expiring at the end of December has dropped from a high of 14% to 11.45%. The market is still bullish. The spot price of BTC has not changed much, but the enthusiasm has subsided a bit.

The SPX ended last week down 1.5%, with technology stocks down 4%, while the health care and utilities sectors performed better, up 2%. Both the SPX and Nasdaq hit scores in the low 10s as investors slashed positions from late last year. Worst New Year performance in years.

The much-anticipated non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, with the number of employed people increasing by 216,000 (vs. expected +175,000), the unemployment rate remaining stable at 3.7%, and the average hourly wage growth also remaining stable at 4.1% year-on-year. However, positive The data results are also accompanied by some hidden worries. The data for October and November were revised down by 71,000 (revised downwards for the 10th consecutive month). The labor participation rate dropped from 62.8% to 62.5%. Weekly working hours also continued to decline. In addition, in-depth The analysis shows that recent job growth has been concentrated in a few industries, particularly government.

Perhaps the non-farm payrolls data cannot fully confirm the slowdown in the job market, but the subsequent ISM service industry data clearly shows that the job market is indeed cooling. The employment sub-item in the ISM service industry index unexpectedly fell from 50.7 to 43.3, a record high of nearly The steepest decline in a decade, which has previously only occurred in periods of extreme market stress such as 2008 and 2020.

In addition, JOLTS employment data released earlier last week also showed that the hiring rate has fallen to 3.5%, the lowest level since 2014. The business services industry, which is more economically sensitive, has performed weakly, and the resignation rate has also dropped to 2018. lowest level since (2.2%)

The bond market experienced violent fluctuations throughout the day. The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield subconsciously rose by 10 basis points after the release of exceeding expectations non-farm payrolls data, and then saw a sharp correction in the yield after the release of ISM service industry data. It plummeted about 20 basis points from high to low, but in New York afternoon trading, bond, stock and foreign exchange prices all returned to flat results, and U.S. bond yields ultimately rose only about 2-3 basis points.

The next week will be very busy. The upcoming data include US CPI/PPI, China credit data/CPI/trade account and Tokyo CPI. The earnings season will also be kicked off by bank stocks.

This years first inflation data will be an important factor in the Feds recent decision-making. The market expects core CPI to increase by 0.3% quarterly and 3.9% annually. So far, most of the progress in slowing inflation has been concentrated in core commodities, and due to the annual increase in housing prices With increases of 8-10% (and mortgage rates down about 100 basis points over the past few months), housing inflation is likely to remain stubbornly high (0.44% OER).

Comments from Fed officials will return this week, with Bostic on Monday, Williams on Wednesday and Kashkari on Friday, focusing on their preference for a rate cut in March and the Feds thoughts on quantitative tightening/balance sheet reduction.

On the other hand, the next potential government shutdown could occur on January 19, just days before the Iowa Republican caucuses, which will focus on the performance of the former president and contenders such as Haley and DeStantis.

The fourth quarter earnings season of 2023 will kick off. The market generally predicts that SP 500 profits will increase by 3% annually, continuing the momentum of the 5% profit rebound in the third quarter. The market predicts that EPS will grow by another 3-5% in 2024. Bottom-up forecasts for this year are significantly better than historical trends.

On the cryptocurrency front, despite previous minor market turbulence, markets are back on track and are once again actively pricing in anticipation of ETF approval this week, with multiple issuers refiling final revised 19B-4 filings, the Securities Exchange The application for change of trading rules means another step towards the finish line. According to market news, SEC members are expected to vote on the ETF application this week and then approve the final version of the S-1 prospectus.

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