SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240105)：BTC再度上演短线跳水，IV再创新高
Yesterday (4 JAN), the U.S. ADP employment number in December was recorded at 164,000, exceeding the expected 115,000, setting a new high in August 2023, mainly led by the service industry including leisure and hotels; another initial jobless claims The number of people receiving benefits was 202,000, lower than the expected 216,000, the lowest level since mid-October last year, which also shows the resilience of the U.S. job market. Market expectations for interest rate cuts have once again been shaken, and U.S. bond yields have been rising. The ten-year yield has exceeded the 4% mark and is now at 4.026%, while the two-year yield has risen to 4.402%. The three major U.S. stock indexes had mixed trends. The Dow rose slightly by 0.03%, the SP and the Nasdaq fell by 0.3% and 0.56% respectively. Digital currency concept stocks rebounded, with MicroStrategy and Coinbase closing up 3.92%/2.2% respectively.
Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar
Source: Binance & TradingView
In terms of digital currency, just when the market thought that the price of BTC would gradually rebound out of yesterdays plunge and return to the 45,000 mark, shortly after the Asian market opened, BTC once again staged a short-term dive of nearly 5% amplitude, falling by more than 2,000 points, and has recovered during the day. Lost half of the ground and challenged $44,000 again. Similar to yesterdays situation, as the ETF approval date is getting closer, the high actual volatility in the spot market has once again raised the options markets expectations for future fluctuations. The IV Curve has risen again as a whole, with an inversion starting from 12 JAN in the short and medium term. It is becoming increasingly obvious that 12 JAN ATM IV reached 81.58% (+ 8.77%) and 75.03% (+ 7.45%) on BTC/ETH respectively, refreshing the highest point of the volatility cone in the past three months. In terms of trading, with the support of traders who are still looking forward to the approval of ETF, this round of price correction has given bullish strategies represented by Long Call and Long Call Spread more opportunities to build positions, among which the buying point of BTC has increased. Most of the positions are concentrated at the recent 45,000 points, while ETH is at the 2,400 resistance level and around 2,450 and 2,500 upwards.
Source: Deribit (as of 5 JAN 16:00 UTC+ 8)
Source: SignalPlus
Source: SignalPlus
Source: Binance & TradingView,ETH has recently formed resistance at 2400
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
You can search for SignalPlus in the Plugin Store of ChatGPT 4.0 to get real-time encryption information. If you want to receive our updates immediately, please follow our Twitter account @SignalPlus_Web3, or join our WeChat group (add assistant WeChat: xdengalin), Telegram group and Discord community to communicate and interact with more friends.
SignalPlus Official Website：https://www.signalplus.com
