SignalPlus宏观研报(20240102)：ETF批准将近，市场投机情绪暴涨
If you are not playing doomsday options on BTC now, when will you wait to play doomsday options? Profitability is high, leverage is high, and the bullish rush on January 12th arose. 46,000 is bullish, the current premium price is 4.35%, and the leverage is 23 times (according to position, delta is 11.5 times); in my experience, as long as the profit stop is timely, your expected return is absolutely positive.
Happy New Year! Global asset markets entered 2024 on a note of palpable optimism, with investors going long in nearly every asset class (except the U.S. dollar) as markets anticipated a wave of interest rate cuts from central banks in most developed markets. Markets have surprised most macro observers over the past year, with risk assets climbing in the face of adversity. U.S. stocks ended last year near all-time highs despite an unprecedented pace of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, proving once again that macro relationships are Quite complex and ever-changing.
With hindsight, its now clear why 2023 was such a positive year for risk assets:
With momentum building in the new year and central banks around the world preparing to cut interest rates, risk sentiment may be difficult to abate in the short term, especially as new capital is poured in. Markets tend to enjoy positive seasonality at the beginning of the year; current valuations are undoubtedly very High, and we remain bearish on U.S. fixed income as we believe investors are overestimating the extent of Fed policy easing while underestimating the negative impact of increased supply, and we believe it will be difficult for yields to remain at current levels, despite this, the Fed There is still a chance to adopt insurance-style interest rate cuts in the first/second quarter to ease the current deep freeze in the IPO/private equity/real estate market. As the economic situation remains good, the degree of policy relaxation will be relatively small. Therefore, the right approach may be to enjoy the current market rally for now and worry about a possible pullback as we enter the second quarter.
There will be more economic data this week, including ISM, JOLTS, FOMC meeting minutes, ADP, non-farm payrolls, ISM services and durable goods orders. If the data results are still dovish, the early FOMO risk may reappear. .
Cryptocurrency prices continue to recover rapidly, with BTC approaching last April’s high of $46,000. Speculative sentiment is heating up as the market expects the SEC to give final approval to a BTC spot ETF this week, with options open interest at the end of 2023 And monthly trading volumes hit new highs, with more than $11 billion in BTC and ETH options expiring on Deribit on Friday, with December trading volume exceeding $1.8 billion, surpassing Octobers highs.
With the approval of ETF approaching, some cryptocurrency-related stocks (such as listed mining companies) have experienced year-end profit-taking operations. Short-term capital flows are still unclear and may be affected by both institutional capital inflows and the release of GBTC supply; and our view on Stock markets take a similar view, advising to ride with recent market momentum and be mindful of possible market pullbacks once the dust settles. Wish you all good luck with your trading in the new year!
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