SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20231220): The holidays are approaching, and many markets maintain the status quo.

Morning BTC call! I think you can play it from now until the New Years Day holiday: as soon as the spot price hits 40,000, just buy the doomsday call.

In line with other central banks, the Bank of Japan unanimously decided to maintain negative interest rates and yield curve control policies unchanged. In addition, although there are rumors that policy changes will occur in January, the outlook given by the central bank remains unchanged. Governor Ueda He expressed optimism about achieving the 2% inflation target, but added that it is difficult to determine when that will happen.

The governor also reiterated that the January decision will still depend on the data, although he also humorously said that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to tell people that they will raise interest rates next month in an attempt to keep traders on guard, influenced by As a result, the yen fell 1%, and as the last central bank meeting of the year ended, risk assets also continued to rise.

Trading volume in U.S. Treasuries and stocks is only 60 – 70% of normal levels, stronger than expected Canadian CPI data, and Bostic’s dovish comments (the United States is making “good progress” on inflation and policy is “well positioned”) have little Affected the market, the market also ignored the strong U.S. new housing starts data. The number of single-family new housing starts surged to the highest level in 1.5 years, but the impact on the market was minimal. However, it is obvious that despite the continued downturn in manufacturing, U.S. housing and consumption The situation remains strong.

In terms of the stock market, different companies have given mixed outlook guidance. Bank of America CEO Moynihan said that consumers are in very good shape and spending has increased by 4-5% year-on-year, which means that households have excess savings of approximately $900 billion. US dollars, lower energy prices also help promote travel and consumption habits, and some consumer-facing companies such as Estee Lauder, Ralph Lauren and PVH are also expected to confirm this view; on the other hand, due to the decline in air cargo volumes, FedEx fell 7% after failing to meet profit expectations. The companys CFO believed that the economic slowdown and declining demand continue to put pressure on revenue.

Regardless, we expect the stock market rally to continue to expand and risk sentiment should remain positive in the near term. Additionally, similar to what we saw during the pandemic, small retail investors appear to be outperforming hedge fund managers again, The performance of the largest hedge fund long positions has significantly lagged the weaker and most shorted stocks, another sign of the slow expansion of the stock markets leadership from the seven largest stocks to smaller stocks. All in all, the market is likely to continue to hold One-way upward pattern.

On the cryptocurrency side, prices remain flat, and with macro markets closed for the holidays and liquidity still relatively subdued, the market is expected to be more susceptible to daily news noise; at the same time, despite the recent Senate banking hearings by large bank CEOs Negative views on cryptocurrencies were expressed at the meeting, but financial institutions still made many substantial progress in the field of cryptocurrencies in the turbulent 2023. Bloomberg listed some of the blockchain initiatives taken by the banking industry in the past year, Hopefully next year the list will be longer.

Finally, the daily macro research report will be suspended until January 2 next year. However, we will release the 2024 macro outlook in the next few weeks, so please pay close attention. I wish you all a happy holiday and smooth trading in the new year!

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