SignalPlus Volatility Column (20231219): Rebound, market buys bullish January again

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2023-12-19 20:00 (UTC+8)

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BTC was once again supported by $41,000 and rebounded back to around 43,000, sweeping away the haze of the downward trend in the past few days. Vol Skew, another indicator used to observe market sentiment, also gradually recovered its losses and returned to near zero, which is about the level of the

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On Monday, Federal Reserve officials poured cold water on the markets expectations of interest rate cuts one after another, and once again warned that the current market expectations for the Feds interest rate cuts are somewhat ahead of schedule. Cleveland Fed President Mester believes that the key to the next stage is how long monetary policy needs to remain tight. U.S. bond yields rose first and then fell. The two-year/ten-year U.S. bonds are now at 4.433%/3.907% respectively. The three major U.S. stock indexes have closed up. The SP 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq closed at 4740.56 (+0.45%) and 37306.02 (+0.45%) respectively. +0.0023%) and 14904.81 (0.61%), with Nvidia and Google leading the way up 2.43%. In terms of the Japanese yen, the Bank of Japan’s December interest rate meeting decided to continue to implement the policy of negative interest rates. It is expected that the year-on-year CPI increase in 2024 may be higher than 2%. Affected by this, the Japanese yen continues to fall.

In terms of crude oil, attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea have intensified, increasing transportation costs in this area. International crude oil rose nearly 2%, and WTI and Brent crude oil closed up 1.5%/1.42% respectively.

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

Source: Binance & TradingView

In terms of digital currencies, BTC was once again supported by $41,000 and rebounded back to around 43,000, sweeping away the haze of the downward trend in the past few days. Vol Skew, another indicator used to observe market sentiment, also gradually recovered its losses and returned to near zero, about It is the median level in the past three months; the overall volatility level at the front end has also fallen slightly, and the curve has steepened. In terms of trading, BTC call options at the end of December were hotly traded, mainly from the opening of positions at 47000-50000. At the same time, there were also strategies represented by Short 45000 vs 47000 Call Spread, which expressed the view that there is limited room for upside before the New Year; ETH transactions Also surrounding the expiration date of 29 Dec and nearby, there was a lot of selling on Call Put in December, which partially explained the reason for the decline in IV level in the past 24 hours, while in January it was mainly buying For call options, the net buying volume is mainly concentrated around 5 Jan/12 Jan 2450 ~ 2500

Source: Deribit

Source: SignalPlus

Source: Deribit Block Trade

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