SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20231208):
BTC options holdings hit record high! Dont doubt it, the big institutions are here.
This BTC option block is very interesting: buy the 42,000 put at the end of the year + sell the 37,000 put, a total of 400 BTC, with an expenditure of 210,000 US dollars. I was worried about a retracement, so I bought the current price bearish, but at the same time I felt that because there was an expectation that the ETF would pass, BTC would not fall below 37,000 (or maybe I had U in hand and was willing to open a position at a cost of 37,000), and then I sold the bearish, Collect some royalties, which reduces the cost of hedging.
Just as the rest of the world has turned fully dovish, the Bank of Japan suddenly split yesterday, with Governor Ueda hinting at the possibility of a rate hike, saying his job will become more challenging from the end of the year, before he Visited Prime Minister Kishidas office to discuss monetary policy matters, which may be a deliberate arrangement to send a hawkish signal. Other comments include the specific new interest rate level was not considered when raising interest rates and once interest rates rise, there are many options for target interest rates. Yen assets took a hit as a result of the comments, with the 30-year JGB auction posting its worst-ever result (9 basis points on the tail), 1y 1y swaps surging 12 basis points, and JGBs also seeing their worst performance since 2022 In the worst one-day sell-off since December and the biggest swing in more than a decade, USD/JPY tumbled from 149 (Nov. Even as high as 152) once fell below 142, and the one-month foreign exchange implied volatility also rose sharply from 8% to 12%.
The market is paying attention to the release of todays non-farm payroll data. The implied fluctuation of U.S. bonds is 11.5 basis points, which is slightly high considering the release date of non-farm payroll data. The market generally expects that the non-farm payroll data will be soft. The market expectation shown by Bloomberg is that employment The population increased by 183,000. If the unemployment rate rises to 4% (vs. 3.9%), it may be an important signal that the job market is turning soft in the long term. Other variables that may affect include the emergence of employment due to the end of the UAW and Screen Actors Union strikes. The rebound, as well as continued government hiring, and other employment indicators are also stronger than JOLTS and ADP statistics.
On the cryptocurrency front, major coins held on to gains after a strong week of gains, with altcoins taking turns higher with majors (Solana +10% in 24 hours). Interestingly, despite BTC’s 161% year-to-date gain, performance But it still lags far behind cryptocurrency-related stock ETFs and Coinbase stock prices, which are up 200% and nearly 300% respectively this year; although the mainstream participation narrative has not improved, and third-quarter profits were mediocre (trading volume year-on-year) (-18%), and a high percentage of analysts give the stock a sell recommendation (9 out of 29 analysts), but Coinbase is still the best-performing stock in this space in 2023, and for investors seeking ETF approval For speculative TradFi investors, Coinbase stock is probably the easiest investment vehicle to gain exposure; on the other hand, the SEC is unlikely to quietly let this area go, and the litigation issue is expected to resurface early next year , the next court date is scheduled for January 17, when Coinbase will once again provide oral defense to the SEC.
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