SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20231205): Macro market liquidity is tight, and the crypto market will continue to rise in the short term.
The bulls in the market are so fierce that today a certain boss spent $4.37 million to buy 400 BTC call options worth $40,000 that will expire at the end of September next year.
The market is divided! One boss sold nearly 3,000 BTC call options at 40,000 and 42,000, earning more than $5 million in premiums.
The premium (premium) of BTC futures for March next year has reached an annualized rate of 10.68%!
Compliance channels saw net capital inflows into the currency circle for the 10th consecutive week.
After weeks of nonstop risk-on sentiment, the U.S. Treasury market has seen a sharp bearish trend (2-year yield + 10 basis points), and several short-term top patterns appear to be forming, with some very short-term funding rates The rise (GC 5.43%, SOFR FIX + 6 basis points to 5.39%) also hints at some of the usual liquidity tightness before the end of the year, with the Bank of Japan’s slowdown in repurchases and the Wall Street Journal’s report on China’s tightening capital situation Reports also further exacerbated the days trend.
There were some potential tops and reversals yesterday, with gold falling quickly 2% after hitting an all-time high of $2,135, industrial commodities down 2%, the U.S. dollar index +0.5%, and U.S. 1y 1y yields +14 basis points, -1.5% for technology stocks, -2.5% for the stock momentum index, and the probability of a rate cut in March fell back to 50% (from 65% on Friday).
Overbought conditions in Treasuries, $20 billion in new supply of investment grade bonds, and more economic data releases this week (JOLTS, ADP, unemployment benefits, non-farm payrolls) combine to provide the perfect reason to reduce bond exposure, JPM The survey showed record net long positions in the past week, a 180-degree turn from the record short positions earlier this year, and once again proves that strong views should still be flexible as the market changes. quick. While we have no particular view on the employment data, asset pricing is currently geared towards stronger data, which is reflected more in de-risking market positions rather than explicit shorting. In addition, we believe that the Fed may be dissatisfied with the speed and extent of the markets current advance ahead of them, so we do not rule out the possibility that Powell will try to return to the hawkish interest rate hike script at the next FOMC meeting.
The U.S. stock market also showed similar overbought conditions on RSI and other indicators, but the sensitivity of the U.S. stock index to positive economic data has also decreased, showing some signs of fatigue; in addition, the call to put ratio of SPXs 0 DTE options If it continues to be >1, the market continues to trend upward.
Although the stock market saw some pullback yesterday, cryptocurrency prices continued to rise, with BTC approaching $42,000 and ETH holding steady above $2,200. BTC futures saw heavy short liquidation as prices continued to move higher in the absence of sellers; real volatility Rates have recovered rapidly over the past week after being flat for two weeks; as traders scramble to retain upside exposure, prices have a better chance of continuing to rise, and for dip buyers, selling puts in this environment Possibly, if macro risk sentiment continues to return to mean levels towards the end of the year, upcoming macro events may provide a good entry point.
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