SignalPlus Volatility Column (20231116): Macroeconomics are good again, currency price IV both rebounds
Yesterday (15 Nov)U.S. retail sales recorded -0.1% monthly rate in October, the first decline in the past seven months, slightly stronger than expected -0.3%, compared with the previous value of 0.9%; in addition,U.S. October PPI index weaker than expected, recording -0.5%, the largest decline since April 2020,Reinforced the performance of cooling inflation, but Fed official Daly (President of the San Francisco Fed) madewarnHe said that if he prematurely declares victory in the fight against inflation and then faces the situation of having to raise interest rates again, it will endanger the Feds credibility. U.S. bond yields fell after rising during the session, with the current two-year/ten-year yields at 4.888%/4.502% respectively.
Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar
Source: Binance & TradingView
Under the favorable situation again at the macro level, BTC continued its rebound trend and once touched the $38,000 mark. ETH also followed the trend and returned to above $2,000, hovering around 2,080. In terms of options,Strong realized volatility allowed IV to successfully recover most of yesterday’s losses, the front-end of BTC and ETH respectively increased by about 9%/6% Vol.The curve is flattening.
On the other hand, the SEC was originally supposed to respond to the ETF application by this Friday.However, judging from its response document to Hashdex ETF, the resolution approval will be postponed to 2024 and is likely to also affect ETF applications from other institutions, at the same time, we also pay attention to the bulk marketcastCapital distribution begins to shift to forward, a long-term bullish triangle spread strategy emerged represented by BTC Long 29 Mar 24 70000 C vs Short 28 JUN 24 100000 C. Similar transactions also occurred on the BTC/ETH year-end period. In addition, strategies that are bearish on the recent upward fluctuation of BTC have also received attention, such as the Call Spread of Short 17 Nov and the Call Calendar of Buy 8 Dec Short 24 Nov.
Source: Deribit (as of 16 NOV 16:00 UTC+8)
Source: SignalPlus
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
You can search for SignalPlus in the Plugin Store of ChatGPT 4.0 to get real-time encryption information. If you want to receive our updates immediately, please follow our Twitter account @SignalPlus_Web3, or join our WeChat group (add assistant WeChat: xdengalin), Telegram group and Discord community to communicate and interact with more friends.
SignalPlus Official Website：https://www.signalplus.com
