SignalPlus Volatility Column (20231110): BlackRock registered ETH Trust, and the currency price exceeded 2,000
Yesterday (9 Nov), the number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States rose for the seventh consecutive week to 1.83 million, adding to signs of labor market weakness; but then Powell said in his speech:The Fed will not hesitate to further tighten monetary policy if appropriate. This paragraphHawks speakPromoted the rise in U.S. bond yields,Two-year U.S. Treasury yield returns above 5%, and because30-year U.S. bond auction shows bleak demand, long-term U.S. bonds also resume gains, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.772%, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield closed at 4.628%. at the same timeThe recent continuous upward momentum of U.S. stocks has also ended., the Dow/SP 500/Nasdaq fell 0.65%/0.8%/0.94% respectively.
Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar
In terms of digital currencies, yesterday (10 Nov) ETH had a strong pullback at UTC+ 8 22:00Breaking through the $2,000 mark, mobilizing bullish sentiment in the entire digital currency market. Investigating the reason, some sources pointed out thatpassFinancial giant BlockRock registers iShares Ethereum Trust, may eventually submit ETH spot ETF application, a move that drove massive buying of ETH in the market. On the other hand, although the BTC spot ETF has not yet been approved by the SEC, Bloomberg ETF analysts believe thatSEC likely to approve 12 Bitcoin ETF applications during 8-day window starting November 9. Any institutional approval would potentially drive up the price of the currency and boost bullish sentiment across the Crypto Market.
Source: Twitter
Source: Binance & TradingView， ETH-USDT performance compared with BTC-USDT
In terms of options, the good news from the news not only drove the price of ETH to rise sharply, but also drove itsImplied Volatility and Vol Skew Hold Highs and Continue to Rise. Judging from the transactions, the bullish spread strategy represented by the recent 24 Nov 2300 vs 2700 Call Spread has become the focus of the market, with the total transaction volume exceeding 50,000 ETH. At the same time, there were also a large number of triangle spread purchases near the end of the year, expressing the outlook for a rise in the market outlook.
On the other hand, in the chart above we see that BTC quickly gave up nearly half of its gains after a short-term rise, and both Option IV and Vol Skew fell sharply. In terms of transactions, the trading volume of selling Call Spread is the most significant. Specifically, at the high point of 37,000+, some traders choose to close the ITM position to take profits and buy again with a higher exercise price. There is also a roll strategy like 29 Dec Sell Trade against the trend with a large order of 38,000 Buy 45,000. In addition, due to the possible approval of the BTC ETF in the next period of time, there is also a large number of Long Call Spread and Diagnol Spread positions in the last three months.
Source: Deribit (as of 10 NOV 16:00 UTC+8)
Source: SignalPlus
Source: SignalPlus
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
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