SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20231109): U.S. stocks rose for eight consecutive days, and BTC futures open interest hit a new high

The market had a relatively calm day, with U.S. stocks rising for eight consecutive days thanks to a strong rebound at the close. In the U.S. Treasury sector, the 10-year yield fell to its lowest level since September due to good auctions. Other macro Assets have also strengthened in tandem with the ongoing risk appetite trend.

Remember the AT1 bonds that got Credit Suisse into trouble in season 1? At that time, the market thought that interest in buying the bond would be suspended for a long time, but it turned out that the market was forgetful after all. UBSs 2-year AT 1 issuance received 10 times oversubscribed interest, and the US$3.5 billion scale attracted US$36 billion. The AT1 index also recovered most of its losses in March, but investors are still worried about disputes over trigger clauses that surfaced during Credit Suisses bankruptcy, and the index has yet to recover to pre-March levels.

Other countries normalizing include Japan, where the Bank of Japans October meeting minutes sent an extremely clear message that no major policy changes are expected this year, echoing recent comments from Governor Ueda, at least not until the second quarter of 2024. Intending to tighten policy, the Bank of Japan hopes to see wage inflation catch up with rising CPI in 2024 before considering policy adjustments. Therefore, the yen is likely to continue to be at a disadvantage against most major currencies, and JGB shorts may not be able to If you don’t start hibernating early, you won’t have a chance to return until at least spring.

In China, as economic growth continues to slow and prices return to deflationary territory, it may put pressure on the local stock market. It has been another difficult year for China-related stocks, and the boost from reopening after the epidemic The effects have faded, with the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite Index already down about 12% in US dollar terms this year, while index gains across other developed markets have generally been +10-30%, including the Nikkei, which has also risen despite a sharp depreciation of the yen. Nearly 10%.

On the other hand, the technical picture of the U.S. stock market still looks very positive, and algo and CTA funds may start to chase the gains from current levels. The market is currently in a long SPX-gamma state, so we expect the market to remain stable until at least the OPEX day in mid-November. The trend will remain stable. However, there is still the possibility of an upward breakthrough in the US stock index. Therefore, even if there has been a significant rebound in the past two weeks, short sellers should still be cautious.

On the cryptocurrency front, macro sentiment also continues to improve, with HSBC announcing a partnership with Metaco to provide institutional custody solutions for tokenized securities in 2024. This is the bank’s latest launch of related services following the recent launch of tokenized gold. Join the likes of JPM and Euroclear in their efforts to revolutionize settlement and digital assets.

In addition, the Wall Street Journal reported that after contacting more than 70 potential bidders from various parties, there are currently three main buyers who may seek to purchase and restart FTX 2.0, including one proposed by the former chairman of the New York Stock Exchange. operating company. As expectations for the approval of the BTC ETF began to heat up, the open interest in BTC futures on CME hit a record high, and the open interest in BTC futures on different exchanges also reached a new high in the past two years.

DeFi tokens have risen 70% in the past month, BTC has also held on to price gains, and the narrative of mainstream interest continues to thaw. Is the market finally back? Let us continue to look forward to it...

You can search for SignalPlus in the Plugin Store of ChatGPT 4.0 to get real-time encryption information. If you want to receive our updates immediately, please follow our Twitter account @SignalPlus_Web3, or join our WeChat group (add assistant WeChat: xdengalin), Telegram group and Discord community to communicate and interact with more friends.

SignalPlus Official Website：https://www.signalplus.com