SignalPlus Volatility Column (20230825): U.S. interest rates are close to their peak, and BTC has recently regained buying
As market sentiment turned cautious ahead of Powells speech, U.S. stocks gave up the gains brought about by the release of good news from technology stocks the previous day. Nvidia shares fell nearly 10% from overnight highs, and the SP 500 closed down 1.35%. In terms of data, the number of initial jobless claims announced in the United States yesterday (24 Aug 08:30 pm) was 230,000, lower than the expected 240,000, a new low in three weeks.Highlighting the still-tight labor market, in addition, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model further raised its third-quarter GDP forecast to 5.9%, adding more hawkish pressure to Powells speech in Jackson Hole today. But on the other hand, the attitudes of Fed officials showed differences before this major speech: Philadelphia Fed President Harker (this years FOMC voting committee) believes that,The Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this year and may cut them next year if inflation continues to fall. Boston Fed PresidentCollins(2025 FOMC Voting Committee) said that interest rates may be very close to peak,But further interest rate hikes should not be ruled out。
Source: SignalPlus
Source: Binance TradingView, BTC price fell back to 26,000 for the whole session
In terms of digital currency, BTC continued its correlation with the SP Index, with the price falling back by about -1.8% and returning to the consolidation level near 26,000. The previous day was driven by bullish sentimentMid-front-end IV also experienced a correction today, generally fell by about 1 to 2%,The overall curve is steeper, but the ultra-short-term implied volatility still has a premium to the approaching maturity under the uncertainty brought by Jackson Hole。
Source: SignalPlus
Source: SignalPlus, front-end IV down, curve steeper
From a trading perspective, this wave of price declines has given rise to a certainbearish sentiment, large amounts are visible on BTC-27 Oct and ETH-1 SepBuy Put Spread Trade; In addition, there have been many risky transactions on the Deribit platform in the past 24 hours. Among them, BTC was mostly bought recently (1 Sep 23/8 Sep 23) and sold at the end of the year (29 Dec 23). On the contrary, ETH was sold recently. (29 Sep 23) Sell, Forward Buy (29 Mar 24), reflecting traders different views on Trade BTC/ETH Skew.
Source: SignalPlus
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
You can search for SignalPlus in the Plugin Store of ChatGPT 4.0 to get real-time encryption information. If you want to receive our updates immediately, please follow our Twitter account @SignalPlus_Web 3, or join our WeChat group (add assistant WeChat: chillywzq), Telegram group and Discord community to communicate and interact with more friends.
SignalPlus Official Website：https://www.signalplus.com
