SignalPlus Volatility Column (20230720): Bulk trading continues to bet on call options at low levels.
US SEC will launch a Bitcoin spot ETF review this week, which is significant for the entire cryptocurrency industry and investors. BTC is hovering around the $30,000 mark, waiting for change, while ETH remains weakly correlated and saw an upward trend at the close. BTC's implied volatility continued to decline today, but the near-term IV (28-Jul-23/4-Aug-23) that includes Fed uncertainties rebounded slightly after settlement. At the same time, ETH's near-to-mid-term IV recovered some lost ground today following yesterday's sharp drop, while the far-end volatility slightly fell due to a slowdown in new bullish strategies.
Source: Deribit (as of 16:00 UTC+8)
Source: SignalPlus
Source: Laevitas, there is no significant change in the overall trading volume of the options market
BTC In terms of bulk trading, traders have not stopped buying Vol on dips in the futures. On 29 SEP 23 they bought 34000/28000 , and 37000/25000 is Risky. In late March of the next year, they went Long on 32000/45000 Call Spread.
ETH has fewer bulk trades. At this time, a medium-term 10000 ETH notional put Call Spread (25 AUG 23-1900-2200-CS) is particularly noteworthy. In fact, Deribit retail customers' transactions in the short term also reflected strong selling pressure. At the end of July, about 5900 contracts of the 2100-C were sold, and the main transactions on 4 AUG 23 were concentrated in the Short 2000-C and 2050-C.
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
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