Foresight Ventures Market Weekly: Market Volatility, Major Trends Set to Rise
A. Market Perspectives
1. Macro Liquidity
Monetary liquidity is tightening. The resilience of the US economy seems to have strengthened the determination of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Powell's hawkish speech indicates that there will be more tightening policies this year, and there is a possibility of consecutive rate hikes. The significant pullback in US stocks marks the end of a three-month uptrend. The SEC has shown a shift in attitude towards cryptocurrency regulation, and the trend of BTC is stronger than that of US stocks.
2. Market Overview
Top 100 market cap gainers:
The market experienced a volatile correction this week. BTC saw an increase while altcoins declined, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate hit a new low for the year. With the surge in Wall Street's interest in ETF applications, we have seen early signs of a recovery in US-led demand. The market focus is on BTC and strong altcoins.
BCH: EDX, a cryptocurrency exchange supported by Fidelity Investments, Jiaxin Wealth Management, and Castle Securities, has started operations, offering BTC, ETH, BCH, and LTC tokens. This has directly stimulated a sharp rise in BCH.
FTT: FTX exchange plans to recover $7 billion in bad debt and restart operations, attracting interest from several Wall Street tycoons. FTT may have similar meme speculation opportunities like LUNC.
OX: OX Exchange is a debt trading exchange founded by Zhu Su and has now become the leader in RWA. Recently, it has launched new features such as launchpad and stablecoins.
3. BTC Market
1) On-chain Data
The HODLers are slowly accumulating. The amount of BTC held in cold wallets has reached a historical high of 15.2 million coins, while the exchange balances have dropped to the lowest level since January 2018 at 2.3 million coins. Approximately 150,000 BTC is flowing into the aforementioned cold wallets each month, indicating that the HODLers have been quietly accumulating.
Stablecoins remain stable. Recent liquidity data shows that there has been no further inflow of funds into the market, but rather signs of outflows, indicating insufficient liquidity as a major factor limiting further market gains.
The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore, which is based on market overall cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is above 6, it is in the top range; when the indicator is below 2, it is in the bottom range. MVRV dropping below the key level of 1 indicates that holders are in an overall state of loss. The current indicator is 0.72, entering the recovery phase.
2) Futures Market
Funding rate: Neutral this week. Rates of 0.05-0.1% indicate a higher long leverage, which may indicate a short-term market top; Rates of -0.1-0% indicate a higher short leverage, which may indicate a short-term market bottom.
Futures Positions: This week, the total BTC position remains high, with main funds entering the market. Whereas ETH positions are relatively stable.
Futures Long/Short Ratio: 1.0. Market sentiment is not obvious. Retail investors' sentiment often serves as a contrarian indicator, with below 0.7 indicating fear and above 2.0 indicating greed. The fluctuation in the long/short ratio weakens its significance as a reference.
3) Current Price Situation
This week, BTC maintains high-level oscillation. Both bearish and bullish factors only affect short-term market movements. The lack of funds entering the market is the reason why the overall trend cannot rise. When it cannot rise, it will oscillate sideways. Once it falls to a certain level, it will accumulate strength and explode. Therefore, the overall environment is oscillating. The entry of Asian funds from Hong Kong and the participation of Wall Street institutions in the United States all indicate that the cryptocurrency industry is gaining more and more recognition from mainstream society. Therefore, the general trend is upward.
B. Market Data:
1. Total Locked Amount of Public Chains
2. Proportions of TVL on Different Public Chains
The mainstream coin market continued to rebound this week, but there was no significant growth in TVL. Instead, it decreased by 0.7b compared to last week. The proportion of ETH chain's TVL still remains around 58.6%. The price increase this time was mainly driven by mainstream old coins and meme coins, while other altcoins remained unchanged. The increase in lending protocols was more noticeable, which may be partly due to the high proportion of mainstream coins in the lending protocols, making them more susceptible to positive market conditions. On the other hand, it may also be due to the greater demand for currency allocation caused by rapid market changes.
The TVL of various mainstream Layer 2 public chains all experienced a slight decline, with polygon, avalanche, arbitrum, and optimism all declining by 2% - 3%.
3. Locked Amount of Various Chain Protocols
1) ETH Locked Amount
2) BSC Lock amount
3) Tron Lock amount
4) Avalanche Lock amount
5) Polygon Lock amount
6) Arbitrum Lock amount
7) Optimism Lock amount
IV. ETH Gas fee history
The current on-chain transfer fee is about $1.63, Uniswap transaction fee is about $14.68, and Opensea transaction fee is about $5.7. Compared with last week, gas fees fluctuated slightly, with gas overall at its lowest point. From the perspective of gas consumption, Uniswap occupies a leading position.
Five, NFT market data changes
1) NFT-500 index:
2) NFT market situation:
3) NFT trading market share:
4) NFT buyer analysis:
5) Top 5 collections Volume:
From the perspective of trading volume, the NFT market is still in a bearish atmosphere, with a significant decline in overall trading volume except for a few blue-chip NFT projects. Azuki has dropped more than 45% in a single week, and the overall market value of NFTs continues to decline.
Blur still maintains an absolute leading position in terms of trading volume. Although there has been a slight rebound in NFT trading by existing users this week, in the medium and long term, there has been a significant decline in existing NFT users, possibly due to capital withdrawal speculation. The number of new NFT users entering the market is also continuously decreasing, with no upward trend. The number of small NFT projects in the market is still decreasing, indicating that their survival space has been gradually shrinking under the current market environment.
VI. Latest Financing Situation of the Project
About Foresight Ventures
Foresight Ventures is a venture capital firm that invests in the innovation process of cryptocurrencies for the next few decades. It manages multiple funds, including VC funds, secondary active management funds, multi-strategy FOF, and special purpose S Fund "Foresight Secondary Fund I," with total assets under management exceeding $400 million. Foresight Ventures adheres to the principles of "Unique, Independent, Aggressive, Long-term" and provides extensive support to projects through its strong ecological power. Its team consists of experienced professionals from top financial and technology companies, including Sequoia China, CICC, Google, and Bitmain.
