SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20230622): Positive blessing, BTC rebounded violently

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Source:  Watcher Guru, Decrypt, Yahoo Finance

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In Chairman Powell's testimony to the House of Representatives, the venerable chairman spoke about seeing "stablecoins as a form of money", even if the ultimate source of currency credibility is still the central bank, in addition, he also expressed the view that "cryptocurrency seems to have staying power as an asset class", but we cannot verify this view (not investment advice, please be careful own research).

The timing of this statement is quite subtle. Recently, a large number of TradFi spot ETF applications (Blackrock, Invesco, WisdomTree) and other new cryptocurrency projects (EDX exchange, Fidelity) have emerged. Regardless, Bitcoin is still motivated to break through $30,000. ETH also rallied above $1,900, the sharpest rally we've seen in the digital asset space in months.

Otherwise, the content of Powell's testimony was not far off from last week's FOMC statement, with the chairman focusing on "overachievement" of employment goals, a high focus on inflation, and reducing the Fed's balance sheet to "smaller than it is today." ", and also emphasized the need to hold sufficient reserves as a means of buffering shocks; in terms of impact on the market, although the tone of the Q&A session was as expected to be dovish, the impact on U.S. debt was limited, and the trading volume was only Around 70% of the monthly average, while the rest of the global fixed income market focused more on disappointing UK CPI data (core CPI 7.1%, the highest since 1992).

Immediately after the higher-than-expected CPI data, the Bank of England's interest rate decision will debut today. The Bank of England is almost in a dilemma under the background of high inflation. The probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points implied by the pound OIS is 50/50. With interest rates approaching 6%, it looks like the task of beating inflation is much tougher (for developed markets) this time around.

In equities, the SPX fell 0.5 percent, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 1.2 percent as the rebalancing of investors away from tech stocks into energy and industrials continued, with the SPX finally trading in June. Sentiment highs were reached during the rally and then retreated.

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