Data Interpretation: How has the Curve stablecoin performed recently?
Original title: "June 12, 2023: Benchmarking $crvUSD"
Original compilation: Kxp, BlockBeats
Original compilation: Kxp, BlockBeats
first level title
TL/DR
methodology
methodology
LinkLinkA CSV file of historical data for 10 stablecoins is downloaded.
The one exception is that CoinGecko doesn't have market cap data for crvUSD, so we created a simple Dune dashboard that makes it easy to get data from on-chain, thanks to Dune's new free tier plan that allows exporting CSV files.
Of course, the size of our data here is small - less than a month's worth of data, and crvUSD's share is very small relative to other stablecoins, please note that everything below has important notes.
We may look at this again when we have more data, but for now this is our first attempt at benchmarking crvUSD against other stablecoins.
first level title
anchoring situation
While Curve has been publishing charts of crvUSD holding steady around $1, we wanted to see how precisely this peg compares to other stablecoins.
During this time period, almost all stablecoins are in the same jumble of colored lines, except for the high-ranking LUSD.
Just yesterday we saw a very brief dip in TUSD and USDD, so we can clearly see what effect this has on crvUSD (TUSD is an anchor holder for crvUSD). Fortunately, crvUSD has mechanisms in place to prevent its holders from losing their peg, and in this case, it recovers fairly quickly.
This jumble of colored lines only gives us partial information, but we can use this data to calculate the peg of each stablecoin, and also use the daily data to calculate the mean absolute error of each stablecoin relative to $1.
While not expecting any return, we will still look at LUSD and express it as a standard deviation, which is more appropriate for LUSD floating above the anchor.
In both charts, the biggest gainer is DAI, followed by 1:1 backed stablecoins USDC and USDT. At the same time, Paxos' USDP also performed well in it.
On the next rung, crvUSD ranks above other stablecoins in terms of price stability. Still, it’s too early in its lifecycle to celebrate a win, but it’s certainly worth keeping an eye on this metric to see if the peg holds up as the stablecoin scales. Some analysts estimate that if more liquidity is added to the Peg Keeper pool, the peg could become tighter; or if the coin’s market cap expands so that it becomes a target for hackers, we could see the opposite effect.
Finally, when we focus on price, we can plot a correlation table to see how stablecoins move relative to each other.
first level title
Utilization
Coingecko has transaction volume data, so we can try to understand how many of these stablecoins are actually being used.
However, we need to do some crunching of the data, otherwise we won't get anything other than Tether's overwhelming strength, which is partly influenced by the US Crypto War.
In the image above, we have obtained the total market capitalization data of crvUSD directly from the on-chain data, because CoinGecko does not provide this data. With this data, we can measure actual utilization by dividing transaction volume by market cap.
On this metric, crvUSD does well. During the growth phase of crvUSD it looks great, but keep in mind that this could be because newly minted crvUSD is being traded immediately (usually Conic these days), leading to increased utilization. It would be best to reassess this when the coin exits its growth phase, but it's off to a good start.
market value
market value
Once again, Tether has formed an overwhelming advantage.
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in conclusion
in conclusion
crvUSD is still in its early stages and is currently experiencing rapid growth. Growth rates of about 10% per day are unlikely to be sustained, so it will be useful to watch metrics such as anchor strength and utilization, and watch for any changes when growth inevitably slows.
It would also be fruitful to reproduce this with finer-grained time-frame data than a single day if this data is not extracted daily from CoinGecko, but directly from on-chain data.
In terms of predictive analysis, we can also consider the following indicators:
Resilience: how quickly each stablecoin regains its peg after a volatility)
Deviation Frequency: How often each stablecoin exceeds a certain threshold
· Market correlation: which stablecoins are vulnerable to the price of other assets such as ETH
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