SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20230613): The cryptocurrency market is facing challenges, and the stock market is booming

特邀专栏作者

2023-06-13 11:37 (UTC+8)

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Crypto liquidations continue as more platforms operating in the U.S. restrict access for U.S. users, and Robinhood operational stats show crypto trading volumes plummeting 43% month-on-month as the SEC crackdown intensifies , while stock spot and options

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Deribit’s delivery options at the end of June, BTC’s biggest pain point is 24,000 🫠 However, the lower curve is relatively flat, and the intrinsic value of 25,500 is similar to 24,000. The biggest pain point of ETH is 1700. Looking at the option data, this month's spot price is the same.

The stock market remains buoyant, with stocks favored by retail investors leading gains again heading into this week's CPI/FOMC, with moderating inflation, a relatively cooperative Fed and an economy that continues to be driven by a strong U.S. consumer all contributing to a flawless execution of the soft move In the mainland scene, the stock market seems to have nothing to worry about, and the stock market bear market has entered hibernation along with cryptocurrencies.

Investor enthusiasm is everywhere, with consumer-focused sectors like cruise travel handily outperforming the index this year, and the AAII sentiment index rising to its most optimistic level since 2021, barring a surge in inflation data or the It would be hard to fight the trend otherwise, with an unexpected hawkish stance from the Fed on Wednesday.

Professional managers have fared relatively poorly this year, with traditional "value" strategies and macro-sensitive cyclical and defensive stocks performing significantly underperformed pure growth and momentum strategies, given concerns about regional banking problems, Disappointing Chinese data, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and market value losses in real estate and other rate-sensitive assets, the current sharp increase in risk sentiment is indeed surprising, but the market always tends to inflict the most pain on most participants. direction forward.

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