SignalPlus Macro Research Report 20230609: The U.S. job market is weak, and liquidity is expected to improve

特邀专栏作者

2023-06-09 14:15 (UTC+8)

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With the VIX hitting year-to-date lows (around 14%), we expect the current calm market conditions to continue into next week's CPI/FOMC, but we also don't expect the Fed to surprise the market as much as the BoC. Implied volatility is likely to r

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Dear friends, welcome to the SignalPlus macro research report. SignalPlus macro research reports update macro market information for you every day, and share our observations and opinions on macro trends. Welcome to track and subscribe, and follow the latest market trends with us.As the week draws to a close, markets remain relatively quiet,U.S. weekly jobless claims surge to 1.5-year high (261,000)

, and broke through the 2-year moving average, finally gave a preliminary signal of continued weakness in the job market. After the data was released, U.S. bond yields fell by about 8 basis points, while energy prices fell by 6% and also supported the slowdown in inflation. Narrative and lower yields.On the liquidity front, the Treasury Department's expanded $110 billion 4-week and 8-week Treasury auctions saw mixed reactions compared to earlier in the week;Treasury plans to restore TGA balance to about $425 billion by June 30, it is expected that the scale of treasury bond auctions will continue to increase this month,At the same time reserve levels (system liquidity) are expected to decline correspondingly over the same period

However, officials of the Ministry of Finance have maintained very open and transparent communication on the liquidity drawdown, and have given the risk market sufficient time to prepare, thus reducing the potential impact on asset prices.As risk sentiment among investors and corporate management continues to improve, the implied recession probability has also begun to decline, but the economic momentum is only "slow enough" to maintain the current ideal prosperity.The correlation of different assets has basically returned to normal

, SPX and Nasdaq prices are once again showing near-perfect correlations with bond yields, helping to lift the performance of typical risk parity strategies (+6% YTD) and boosting sentiment.

Equity valuations are certainly at an expensive level compared to real yields, though an external catalyst would certainly be needed to push prices lower from current levels.Registration link: https://t.signalplus.com/competition-okx?locale=zh-CN

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